Sunday, August 5, 2012

Tropical Storm Ernesto Restrengthening

Tropical Storm Ernesto

TS Ernesto has experienced a recent blow-up of convection on all fronts and has been able to maintain this convection as the dry air mass fades into oblivion, and warmer waters and better environmental conditions take over. The system is far from developing a core that it had not too long ago, but this certainly is a starting point for a system that has taken the beating of beatings over the past several hours.

Looking at the steering layer conditions, the energy associated with Ernesto appears to be following a current that takes the system more westward than anything, as the system will be fighting a flow that would slam Ernesto into Central America. That said, I feel that landfall on Ernesto will likely happen a bit farther south than what the NHC is forecasting (see below image). However, because the system is not in a heavily sheared area, and stronger storms tend to want to curve north, there remains the potential for a more northwest direction. Whether that happens remains to be seen.


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