Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Cool Underwater Anomalies Threaten El Nino's Existence

Latest underwater anomalies from the TAO/TRITON agency suggest a building of cooler than normal waters below the surface. This comes as the atmosphere does not react favorably in the presence of an El Nino.

Waters as cool as 2 degrees below normal are being measured approximately 200 meters below the surface, outperforming that of the El Nino, which is being clocked at 1 degree above normal. Common sense says that such an abundance of cool water is suggesting something is happening, whether it is recognized or not. At the moment, I have a fine time believing that these colder waters will rise to the surface and overtake the El Nino to make for a neutral-ENSO winter. This body of cooler waters has been strengthening over the past while, as the El Nino actually takes it down a notch.

For those wondering, if this were a La Nina (NOT saying it is), this would be more east based, borderline central based. However, I am not nearly defining this as a La Nina. It is what it is: a cool body of water below a warm body of water.

This is one of the tricky parts of forecasting: Do you judge a book by its cover, or do you look deeper into what's really going on? I, in an attempt to give you the best information, believe that these cooler waters are weakening the El Nino. I do not anticipate an El Nino to be around by the time January rolls around. I base this on an unfavorable atmospheric response thus far, as well as this new cold body of water that, should it be on the surface, would be classified as a strong La Nina.



Anonymous said...

What does a neutral-ENSO winter mean? Who tends to get the most snow when this forms?

WinterStorm said...

Hi Andrew! Are you thinking of any new analogs because of this?

ERN WX said...

Winds have quieted down for my area. Remember, Enso peaks in December. I will wait till Nov. before I change from weak Nino.

ERN WX said...

WinterStorm, I see a good pattern developing. This storm has solidified my opinions on winter. Andrew, are you looking at any analogs for neutral winters following mdt/strong Ninas? Cold dry but sometimes snowy conditions for most of us. If neutral does occur, the NAO will control all. Henry likes weak Nino idea. Most forecasters I know say the same. I say wait till Nov. Thanks for the hard work. I hope to be around for the Sat. discussion.

Anonymous said...

It seems as though we have one of these El Nino updates about once a week and it doesn't look like Andrew thinks an El Nino is coming at all. As a matter of fact it sounds like the data points to another La Nina winter which brings me to my point. If all the above is true would it not seriously impact anyone who has already put in jeapordy a winter forecast out there already. If the parameters are changing weekly I find it hard to believe anyone that has a forecast out there would be accurate.

Andrew said...

Anonymous #1: A neutral-ENSO is like the middle ground between an El Nino and La Nina- it's neither. The ENSO is too weak then to have an effect on weather patterns. The people with the most snow could be the Ohio Valley.

WinterStorm: Already posted.

ERN WX: It is a good idea to wait in such a time of confusion.

Anonymous: They are coming out so frequently as mounds of new data have been recently unearthed. We are technically in an El Nino, but the lack of recognization by the atmosphere (wind patterns, etc.) makes this process a whole lot harder.

dillon shovkley said...

i live in extreme southern kentucky, about a hour north of nashville..does that consist of the ohio valley area?