Saturday, September 1, 2012

El Nino Becomes Central Based

Recent observed SST anomalies across the ENSO monitoring regions reveal that the El Nino is now moving into a central-based position, with the warmest anomalies located in Regions 3 and 3.4.

Recent weeks have shown the progression westward of these anomalies may be thanks to a band of above normal 200mb wind anomalies centered conveniently over the El Nino, as shown below.

Should these winds continue, I would not be surprised to see westward motion continue with this El Nino. I would like to see 850mb winds also jump in on this, but at the moment there are little winds to be found over the ENSO region for that level.

The more we see the El Nino move west, the better. Historically, west-based El Ninos have proved to be the ones producing the most snow over the Eastern US- an added bonus to the weak strength of the El Nino that also adds to snowfall forecasts.

While time will tell, I find this to be a very positive sign for those wanting some cold and snow across the Eastern US.



ERN WX said...

Hello, Andrew. It is looking possible that we will more than make up for last year's disaster. Tropics say weak nino. Add that with the moving west based and we are looking good with snow. February could have Storm of Century type Nor'Easter. My concern is that after last year people won't take the potential seriously. One snowless winter and folks around here say it will never happen again. At least we have lots of salt:} Several unusually strong clippers will likely occur too. You will likely be busy with personal winter fcsts. Keep up the excellent work and thanks a lot for it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

What is the impact on snow in the Colorado Rockies?

WinterStorm said...

I sure hope that we get a west-based El Nino this winter. It would enhance snow chances in the east. I really hope that I get AT LEAST ONE 10"+ snow storm here in Michigan. If I don't get at least one 5"+ storm, I'll go nuts. I NEED SNOW. Have a good day!