Friday, September 28, 2012

SOI Remains Erratic; El Nino Not Evident

The Southern Oscillation Index, commonly called the SOI, remains too erratic and unsteady to provide clear evidence that an El Nino is present.

This roughly-2 year chart of the SOI shows that the La Nina was very well defined in summer-fall-winter 2010-2011, and even in 2011-2012. However, as of recently, the SOI has been all over the place. It has mainly been in negative territory, but the fact that it is usually above -8.0 (the threshold for an El Nino is -8.0 or below) during the last few months tells me that the SOI is not recognizing the presence of an El Nino.

I believe that this winter will hold a neutral ENSO, possibly warm neutral (above 0.0 but not above 0.5) . I have yet to nail down exactly the analogues appropriate for that situation, but I will find it and give it to you ASAP.



ERN WX said...

Interesting pattern is evident right now. Folks in the Grt Lks region could see SNOW within the next few weeks. No, not a big one but a little snow is possible. Just a sampling. The ENSO will likely settle into a weak Nino/neutral in Dec. Andrew, I bet you see the poss snow in the long range. Interesting pattern. E., OH Valley still look good for winter.

mike paulocsak said...

Hello ERNWX! Are you enjoying the rain out east of me? I agree with what you say about the East and Ohio Valley for winter.

ERN WX said...

Mike, I enjoy the rain a lot. Better than nothing. Slight excitement at least. Now a 960mb low 155 miles off the Coast... that would be wonderful in January.

mike paulocsak said...

Hello ERN WX! Looks like another wet one coming up for Tomorrow and again on Monday night through Tuesday.They just keep coming.That'a alright with me!