Sunday, October 21, 2012

'Sandy' May Pose Threat To Northeast

There is a disturbance brewing in the Caribbean that may very well become 'Sandy', the next name for a tropical system in the Atlantic.

Satellite imagery indicates a fairly disorganized area of a few clusters of defined thunderstorms and a pretty barren western flank of the system. However, it does appear that convection has been increasing in recent hours in association with this system, indicating that this tropical wave's potential to develop is increasing. Let's look at some of the model forecasts on this system.

The 6z GFS takes the system north, to the point that it is just east of Florida by the time the next full week passes. At that point, low surface pressure tells me that Sandy would have already developed and been named.

If we keep looking at what lies ahead of the tropical system, we see a ridge of high pressure just off the East Coast, with another one in the Western US. This puts the disturbance in a difficult spot. I could see Sandy moving west and actually hitting the Mid-Atlantic, but we'll have to go further into the model's forecast to see what happens.

The Long Range GFS ends bringing an even stronger GFS well into the Northeastern US as what could be a very strong hurricane. At the moment, considering this is the long range, I'm not too worried, but the presence of even the notion of such a strong system hitting the Northeast is concerning in itself. Again, this is in the long range, so take it for what it's worth.

It should be noted that, as the system makes landfall, temperatures as low as 15 degrees (F) may hit much of the central US and Midwest.

The CMC is even stronger with this system, but remember that the CMC vastly exaggerates tropical systems to the point of absolute insanity. That said, I won't show any further forecasts of the CMC, but will leave you with this image and let your own imaginations take over.

I urge the East Coast to closely watch this system as it may have future implications on where Sandy eventually landfalls.


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