Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Watching For Snow In The Northeast

Northeast weather birds are chirping up the potential for some snow in the next 10 days. This potential appears to hone in on the New York area, where a few inches may be observed. But first, is this scenario even possible?

ESRL/PSD Ensemble forecast for the NAO
The answer is YES.

The PSD, a branch of the ESRL (both of which deal with more technical aspects of weather), runs an ensemble forecast for the NAO, as well as several other teleconnections. This most recent NAO forecast is projecting a deep negative NAO only a few days before the potential snow maker would strike the Northeast. This gradual deepening of the NAO, beginning on October 4th, would ensure that a typical negative NAO pattern would be present by the time this possible system got close to the region.

Now, do I personally think it's going to happen?


Models have a tendency to over-estimate snowfall, and so far this year, the GFS has not performed well with long range snowfall. In the shorter range (120 hours and under), trust in the model greatly increases. However, 216 hours away is just a little too far for me to be comfortable in the scenario that the potential for snow is there. But, as I showed you, there is a chance based on the ensemble members of the PSD. It's a toss-up.


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