The Climate Prediction center's Coupled Forecast System model, or the CFS model (version 2) has put out a new December forecast that crosses the line between unrealistic and just plain absurd.
This forecast is just plain ridiculous. The model is going off the idea that the persistent Omega Block will continue through the rest of the month, which, as shown in the GFS forecasts below, is likely not going to happen.
Now, there is definitely potential for this blocking to stick around in the Bering Sea and make December warm. However, there is one more reason why you should not take the CFS for what it's saying.
forecasts made in November typically verify extremely warm in the DJF period. This not only includes this December forecast, but the other two winter months that we don't particularly care for at the moment.
The CFS' track record is definitely a warm-biased one, meaning it has a tendency to forecast conditions too warm according to this map.
So please, winter weather lovers, do not get so fired up about the CFS' forecast. In my eyes, it's the least desirable model (next to the Japanese and Canadian models) to use for a forecast. Do you REALLY think that December will bring extreme warmth to the nation??