Thursday, November 29, 2012

Christmas 2012 May Be Cold, Snowy For Some

Image from WeatherBell Models.
The long range CFS model is forecasting a potentially cold and snowy Christmas week, as we enter the final days of November and launch into December. The above image shows the CFS model forecast for the December 21- December 26 timeframe, which does include Christmas. The CFS is projecting that a very strong cold blast will break into the nation, bringing below-average temperature anomalies to near double-digits, especially near the Ohio Valley. The warm temperature anomaly in the West is supportive of a positive PNA pattern, so such a solution as pictured above does not seem that far-fetched by looking solely at this image.

Image from WeatherBell Models.
This is the forecast snow depth for the same time period. The image shows 4 ensemble members forecasting the maximum snow depth by the December 21 - December 26 period. I might as well give a synopsis of my own on this forecast before you get too excited. First off, I highly doubt that San Antonio Texas will be under 4-6 inches of snow on Christmas, so I prefer to discount the upper-right corner image. Also, the idea of 1 foot of solid snow from the Plains, Midwest, Southeast, Northeast and Great Lakes is not that realistic. The most realistic forecast I see on here is on the top-left, where over a foot of snow is coating the Mid-Atlantic, with more in the Northeast.

So, the CFS v2 is projecting a cold and snowy Christmas. However, I don't trust the CFS model, as it does not have the best track record, but it certainly is interesting to see!

Andrew

7 comments:

KakHome said...

I'd pay for this eye candy to be for real...

I'm still digesting what happened in November, as while the forecast for little winter weather (remember that Rossby Wave?) verified pretty well (the month was actually very dry and snowless in the East save two quick nor'easters), the colder than average temperatures were clearly in the East, not the West, for the month as a whole.

In Cleveland, November was colder than normal, and yet it's likely to be the third driest in a 140-year record, and with less than half an inch of snow all month! I do enjoy the cool temps all the same though, too bad December is starting warm and that's another reason why I'd love for this to be more than just eye candy.

Fingers crossed, because we will need these hefty changes to keep December from being a dud!

Yet, November was oddly tranquil overall...

mike paulocsak said...

Hey KakHome!!!!! I spoke to channel 5 WEWS weather man Mark Johnson on Facebook and this is what he said."I see the tempereatures getting colder by mid to late December.He also stated that whatever happens in December winter usually remembers.He also mentioned a possible Appalachian snowstorm towards the middle to end of December.If the storm went west of the Appalachian mountains,Ohio would get significant snowfall.

Cameron Jourdan Fry said...

Is there any hope for winter in December? ECMWF looks close to hopeless for any winter for Kentucky.

Anonymous said...

I'm dreaming, of a warm winter, with every blog post that I write, may the NAO show positive gain, and may all the nor,easters, bring rain.

PetoskeyWX said...

Andrew --

It must be the case that Northern Lower Michigan and the Central and Eastern Upper Peninsula of Michigan are not well-sampled. Zero snow cover with everything else around this area seeing some measurable depth just doesn't make a lot of dynamic sense, especially with the Lakes still being fairly open.

Just my $0.02. Your thoughts? :)

-- David

bjenks said...

Andrea...Thanks for the updates.

.Mike P...Here in the Lou. KY. area I pray for the Western Apps track as weel. Those Low that track up spine or just west deliver our biggest snows. Would love to see a couple of those tracks this year. Tap into some gulf moisture and we are playing....

bjenks said...

Andrew! Sorry for calling you Andrea...That is my wife's name..