Monday, November 12, 2012

El Nino May Get Quick Boost Soon

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is moving into phases that are deemed conducive for El Nino development and sustaining. These phases are historically charted as Phases 6-1, while Phases 2-5 are known to help La Nina effects develop.

The latest MJO forecast, while pretty far out, is indicating that entrance into Phase 1 appears possible. Phase 1 of the MJO is known to bring cold and wet conditions to much of the East US. Considering it falls within the historically pro-El Nino region, I anticipate the El Nino to get a very quick boost of warmer waters and enhanced El Nino effects.

Despite this quick boost, if I extrapolate this proposed Phase 1 forecast out based on a developing MJO pattern, this boost would be quickly eliminated as the MJO would likely then transition more into phase 2/3 before possibly re-routing back into the circle in the middle (commonly called the Circle of Death), where the MJO is too weak to have any effect on the weather.


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