Tuesday, November 20, 2012

ENSO Update: New Forecast Models Show Neutral ENSO Winter

The latest update from the IRI/CPC (International Research Institute/Climate Prediction Center) shows that the wide array of models used in forecasting ENSO phases is looking neutral for this winter.

The individual models are combined into the ensemble mean, shown as a yellow line on the chart. This yellow line keeps the ENSO state where it is at the moment with fluctuations here and there. This prospect isn't all that surprising, seeing as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has not been showing any love to the ENSO regions recently that would otherwise bump up the prospects for an El Nino.

You're probably looking at all those models and wondering 'Which one is the best?' Well, the IRI has an archive of compiled forecasts of each model and observed ENSO conditions superimposed. I went through each model and found the most accurate one of the bunch, shown below:

This model is called the ESSIC model. Statistical models are shown in yellow and dynamical models in green. Don't worry, those fancy terms don't need to be defined at the moment. The ESSIC's previous forecasts are in red, and observed conditions are superimposed in black. It appears that the ESSIC model did very well in forecasting the predicted ENSO states, whereas other models had ridiculous warm or cold bias' that rendered their forecasts completely useless.

In summary, the ENSO conditions should stay in neutral for this winter. This means an increased chance for a cool Plains, a stormy south Plains and wet Southeast-East Coast.

Andrew

5 comments:

KakHome said...

I left a couple of questions up on Facebook (as Brandon Lade). I'm trying to be short/to the point as you requested and I honestly don't think I am going excessive, as they are brief pertinent topics, yet I've had some recent similar Facebook inquiries that I never got a response to, which concerns me. I'd strongly appreciate if you could take a look at my posts there and reply to, or at least acknowledge, them.

KakHome said...

If you have a personal problem with me that you'd like to discuss, please feel free to send me a message on Accuweather (to Hertz). I am sorry if a recent action of mine has caused you to overlook my posts, and am willing to avoid future similar actions at request. :)

mike paulocsak said...

Hello KakHome.I personally believe Andrew does not have an issue with what you post on his site or his Facebbook page.As a follower of his from the beginning,he tries to answer as many questions as he can.Also,I think he feels that his followers should try to limit the number of questions so he can fairly answer all the people who post on here or his Facebook page.

ERN WX said...

Hello everyone, I think Andrew is busy,that is why he is unable to answer questions. I understand what being busy is because nrmly I am. You two watch the next one, this storm looks like it could be yours!!!!!!!!!!!! Have a great day!!!!!!! and enjoy the snow...

ERN WX said...

Mdls shifting east in response to -NAO. Henry has it right with his snow swath...right now. For now this is a NE/Oh Valley storm. KakHome you and Mike are really great to have on here. It wouldn't be the same without you.