Thursday, November 22, 2012

Long Range Lookout: East Asia Entering Very Stormy Pattern

This is the GFS Ensemble 500mb height anomaly forecast for November 27th. While there is a deep stormy pattern across the central part of Canada into the north and central Plains, we are going to pay attention to the upper left hand corner of this image. In the upper left hand corner, we find East Asia.

This forecast for East Asia has two strong storm systems located over the region, with one of these troughs placed on the coastal region of East Asia. When you get storm systems near East Asia, there is a 6-10 day gap between what happens in East Asia and what then happens on the East Coast of the US.

This stormy pattern over East Asia looks like it will be very persistent, which tells me that there will be a stormy pattern over the East Coast about 6-10 days later, which puts us at the December 4 - December 8 timeframe. This will likely not be a train of storms, more-so a storm system that develops either near or offshore of the East Coast and stays in place for a prolonged period of time.

The GFS model did show this system developing well offshore, so that is a possible solution.


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