Monday, November 19, 2012

Model Ensembles Supporting Plains, Midwest Snowstorm

It appears that the GFS Ensembles and ECMWF ensembles are in very good agreement on the potential November 27-29 winter storm (see full post here).

This is the forecasted situation for the morning of November 28th, showing 12 hour precipitation, isobars, high and low pressure areas, and the blue rain/snow line superimposed on all of it. The storm system we are watching is forecasted to be in the eastern Great Lakes at this point, and if we follow the 12 hour observed precipitation, it seems possible that snow could actually fall in the Plains, Midwest and Ohio Valley into New England. The heaviest snow would likely be in the Midwest and south central Plains (KS/NE).

The ECMWF ensembles are showing the exact same location and exact same strength as the GFS Ensembles- remarkable for a situation more than 7 days away. This image is valid for the same time as the GFS ensembles, which is November 28th in the morning. However, this time the ECMWF Ensembles show the 850mb temperatures, which are still following the GFS Ensembles. Imagine the line between the light blue and light green is the equivalent of the blue rain/snow line on the GFS Ensembles, and you can see how remarkably similar these two ensemble systems are.

I will connect all of this in a super-post on this potential tomorrow.



Owen12789 said...

Would Central Illinois be included in this storm as far as snow goes?

Aaron Evans said...

This should include WV. Models showing storm to hit WV.