Saturday, November 24, 2012

November 27-29 Potential Winter Storm (Updated 11/24)

This is the snow depth forecast from this morning's 0z GFS model for just after 6 days out. As you can see, the GFS takes the system down through the south and begins to turn it up the East Coast in typical Nor'easter fashion. When the storm system gets near the New England coastline, the system's pressure plummets, indicating a rapid strengthening of the storm system. It gets even stronger as it nears Maine, leading to accumulating snowfall over much of the Northeast US.

Frankly, this isn't such a bad scenario. It has become evident that the system will take the path through the southern US and out into the Southeast Coast. Because there will be a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in place, the storm track will favor a path for this system up the East Coast, as this GFS forecast is indicating.

I'm still sticking with my forecast that I put out yesterday, which calls for rain near the coastline in the Northeast and snow inland. I should note that, thanks to the GFS, my snowfall expectations for the Northeast inland regions have been enhanced. I will play with the idea of putting out a snowfall forecast today or tomorrow, but at the moment, the ECMWF and GFS remain at odds with each other over this system.


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