Wednesday, November 28, 2012

November 29-30 Winter Weather Event - North Plains

A snow event looks to take place over the Northern Plains on November 30th. The above image, courtesy WeatherBell Models, shows radar reflectivity forecasts from the NAM model. However, this is a reflectivity 4-hour streak, meaning it combines a 4 hour span of radar return forecasts into one image. This image shows where the heaviest snow will strike, which appears to be North Dakota.

Some snow may also fall in Minnesota and Wisconsin , but the main event will definitely be in North Dakota. I anticipate snow amounts to add up to 2-5 inches, centered in northeast North Dakota. The central part of the state will receive a messy slush, as a rain-to-snow event occurs with this system. Devils Lake and Grand Forks are most likely to see the best accumulation (the former location over the latter), while Jamestown and areas in the northern part of James River will see a more rain-sided event with snowflakes mixed in the further east you go.

This event is likely to start in the middle of rush hour as rain and transition to snow by the end of the rush hour period, approximately 6-7 PM central time. Snow will fall into the very early hours of the morning, and end by the 10 AM central hour on November 30th.


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