Saturday, December 15, 2012

An Early Look At Weather For Christmas 2012

The holidays are right around the corner, so let's start to take a look at who could be seeing good holiday travel weather, who may see some stormy conditions, and even who could see a White Christmas.
This is the GFS model forecast for Christmas Day. Pictured above are precipitation values in colors, high and low pressure systems denoted by H and L signals, respectively, and 850mb temperature lines in light reds and light blues. The dark blue line is the rain/snow line. The GFS forecast calls for some light snow in the Great Lakes, with some flakes flying in the immediate coastal areas in the Northeast. 850mb temperatures are as low as -18 (Celsius) in the North Plains, so a chilly Christmas is not out of the question. An emerging storm system in the Plains could cause New Year's troubles, something I'll be addressing in coming days. Also, a rain event could be ongoing for the West US. But before you take this and run with it, the GFS is typically unreliable beyond the 5 day mark, and this forecast is more than 10 days out.

The two images above are of the CFS v2 weekly forecasts. The top image shows temperature anomalies for the timeframe of December 22-27, a frame that includes Christmas. The forecast shows warmth prevailing across the Central US, with a frigid West Canada in the forecast. The bottom image shows maximum snow depth from 4 CFS v2 ensemble members from the Dec. 22-27 period, the same timeframe as the temperature anomaly forecast. The ensemble members hint at some good snows along the Northeast and North Plains, something I can't say won't happen. But in all honesty, the CFS v2 weekly forecasts aren't exactly the most reliable either. However, I think you should watch that snow chart if you're in the Northeast- all 4 members are showing it, so snow on the ground for Christmas doesn't seem all that far-fetched.

Below is my forecast for a White Christmas potential I issued a while back. I will have a new forecast out in coming days.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hey andrew. wonderful job. always. my first look is always ur site u (almost:))never lose focus of the facts.
keep it up, (but PLEASE deliver us some snow in SE new york).
now something somewhat off topic. id like ur recommendation of a few good books/websites to read on weather in general and forcasting so i should be able to follow all terminology. thanks in advance. (sorry for posting here but i figured u wouldn't mind).