Monday, December 10, 2012

Bering Sea Signaling at New Year's Day Big Storm Potential

I got a lot of criticism for releasing my original post on the potential for a New Year's Day storm, but such criticism doesn't deter me. I do these posts in the interests of YOU, so you won't be stranded on a big day like New Year's after a surprise storm comes through.

Above, we see the 24 hour forecast from the Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), the oceanic branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This chart depicts 500 millibar forecasts, with depressions and 'L' signs in the image characterizing low pressure areas, and arcs and/or the letter 'H' signifying high pressure areas. In this forecast, we see not one, not two but THREE separate storm systems in the western Bering Sea. (If you want to get technical about it, there is only one, but eventually the other two will find their way in there.)

Those of you who have followed me for a while know that I look to the Bering Sea for estimates on long range storms. This is no exception. The folks over at the AccuWeather Forums have found a correlation between a strong storm in the Bering Sea, and a strong storm in the US 2.5 to 3 weeks later (18-21 days later).

This forecast map is valid December 11. If we take that date out 18-21 days, we end up with a timeframe of December 29-January 1: Right in the middle of holiday traffic, potentially right on New Year's Day. If this rule (called the Bering Sea Rule) is put into effect here, and these three storms follow said rule, we could see quite a stormy period in the days leading up to New Year's Day.

Before you ask questions, no, I do not know the track, and no, I do not know what regions or cities could even possibly be affected by this. What I typed above is all I know.



Anonymous said...

Andrew, if you once again think back to the LRC, notice during the first week of November, had a nor'easter, about a week after Sandy, so if you take Dec 20-21, and add a week, you'll also interestingly get an idea for a storm near the end of December.

WX BRIAN said...

I love these forecasts.

And for what it is worth, all of those people who complain shouldn't demotivate you. you do it for US and they have to make negative remarks about it, obviously not caring.

Plus, if there is a storm on new year, you are the only person/weather group thingy that has acknowledged a possibility.

anyway, I love these forecasts is all really, and thank you very much for this!!

Anonymous said...


I hipe there is enough cold air in place to make it a snow here in the I-95 corrdidor :)

Also, maybe a december 23-24 storm?

Thanks again!

Mike L. said...

wow, i just found you... and...

First: NO ADS
Second: much better than TWC, where every other pixel is an ad and pop-ups that go undetected by popup blocker
Third: (sorry back to Weather Centre), long range forecasts for once. I don't like that any other people do long range...........


Hope to like your weather blog more and more as time comes :D

Anonymous said...

What track might this storm take? Is Minneapolis in the path of the heaviest snows? Please answer me Andrew, I can always count on you.:)

Anonymous said...

If you'd read... he said he does NOT know any tracks yet.

Anonymous said...

When will the cold pattern for the east start back up again, because in spring hill tn. temps are riding way above average.

Anonymous said...

Forget the naysayers, from one meteorologist to another, love your work!

Andrew said...

Anonymous: Very interesting observation! Great point you have there, thanks for bringing it up! That could come into play with this system...

WX BRIAN: Thank you very much for the kind words. I should be thanking you- I wouldn't be here if you and many others weren't here to support me.

Anonymous #2: A christmas storm is not entirely out of the possibility, but I will need more time to look into it.

Mike L: I aim to please, and I'm very glad you're pleased! Personally, I am a long range person, so you'll probably see a lot more of these long range forecasts in the future.

Anonymous #3: I still don't know the track, but when I find out, I'll make sure you know!

Spring Hill Anonymous: Cooler temps are likely in Jan.

Last Anonymous: Thanks for the kind words! Much appreciated!