**This post is dedicated to Rachel Davino, age 29, a victim of the Connecticut shootings.**
I'm still holding with my idea of a rain-to-snow situation in much of north Illinois, southern Michigan, Missouri and Kansas. The main snows for these areas will depend on the strength of the backside snow. Models were earlier indicating a heavy band of backside snow coming through the Midwest, and if such a solution happened, a few inches could fall.
The model consensus has aligned itself overnight with my track, leaving me with the logical option to hold this forecast in place.
|Green: Low Impact|
Yellow: Moderate Impact
Red: Heavy Impact
Pink: Major Impact
Blue: Extreme Impact
I marked down generally low probabilities for much of the impacted region simply because of the lack of significant snow. I did put a 'Not Very Good' chance for the 3-6 inch range (you may have to adjust it west a tad, or clip off the southern edge of the yellow zone). The Medium forecast is again based off of blizzard-like conditions (or just plain blizzard conditions). I then went ahead and went up to 'Good' for Wisconsin (you should consider it likely). I did not put likely in there without loss of visuals of the counties.
You can also use a formula I made a year or two ago for snow day potential by clicking here.
Hunker down, folks, this one looks to be a nice introduction to winter. I will have more updates on the Facebook page, which you can find on the right-hand sidebar. If you haven't given it a 'Like', go ahead and do it- you can find my latest thoughts not seen here on the blog.