**This post is dedicated to Josephine Gay, age 7, a victim of the Connecticut shootings.**
If the PNA were negative like the ECMWF is showing, high pressure would build in over the Southeast and provoke a storm track more tailored to the Plains, like we saw earlier in the month. The ECMWF is not handling its teleconnections correctly. A neutral NAO and negative PNA would not suppress the storm south and bring it up the coast, unless this is an anomaly situation, which it should not be.
My feeling is the models are having troubles. I have found that the timeframe between Hour 120-Hour 204 is the most turbulent time in model forecasts. The system remains out in the Pacific, meaning weather balloon data is unable to sample it, and the model forecasts are thus hindered in their accuracy.
If anything, such a strong storm in the East would try to provoke a ridge in the Rockies, possibly then inciting a slight positive PNA as the GFS is suggesting. I won't believe that big suppression forecast unless I see it.