Monday, December 31, 2012

Long Range Lookout: Storm Train Shuts off in Medium Range

It appears that the recent storm train that has brought heavy snow to many areas of the central and east US will be shutting off for a while. An example of the forecasted situation above is shown by the GFS Ensembles, with high pressure barricading storms from moving into the US from the Pacific. This barricade should hold for the next several days before it breaks and storm chances ramp up again.

This storm train breakdown will lead to warmer temperatures prevailing across much of the nation, including the Plains, Midwest and rest of the North US. It is expected temperatures will get as high as 10 degrees above normal, but a lack of warm fronts from storm systems means warm ups will not be extreme (i.e. 20 degrees above normal).

Again, this is only temporary, but it does bring a wake-up call that a continuous storm train can not and will not run on and on. At some point, the storms have to cease for a while. The worry is how long they will cease for.


1 comment:

Eric said...

I agree with you here Andrew, looks like a warmer pattern may try to evolve overall, but the warm-up will be very limited due to the very high snow pack over the US, in fact with this new storm coming through Kansas and along the I-70 corridor, the snow pack for the US may reach the top levels for any year on this date, quite amazing. You know just as well as I do, that with the increased snowpack and weakened polar vortex (although it may look good at 500 millibars) it is only a matter of time before cold air gets discharged into the US, of course I would like to have it sooner than later, because last year when it finally decided to arrive in March it was too late Of course, that helped to spark one of the most intense tornado outbreaks in March history, however, the warm 400 millibar temperatures over the US helped to keep the number of tornadoes down overall for the season.