Currently, there is a forecasted positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), meaning that low pressure exists over Greenland. Because of this low pressure system over Greenland, storms that travel along the South US will not get picked up and brought north along the East Coast. If that positive NAO forecast does verify for this timeframe, I find it likely that the system will shoot offshore.
Something that should be watched in this GFS forecast shown above is that high pressure system off the coast of the Southeast US. It is possible that the storm system could be forced north into the Ohio Valley or even New England area if that high pressure system holds its ground against that storm system in the Gulf Coast, or it could go out to sea.
Nonetheless, a good severe weather situation should set up across the South in response to this storm system in the area. Already shown in the 3 hour precipitation forecasts is a linear precipitation forecast, meaning a squall line could be forecasted by the GFS. It's too far out to tell, but that is certainly a forecast typical of squall line formation.
The ECMWF says a very similar situation for this storm system, as in the system goes offshore.
This is a pretty sparse post. I have been VERY busy behind the scenes constructing a major post that will be out later today concerning the stratosphere.
Andrew
9 comments:
snow ?
now I am convinced Andrew must live in the ohio valley area, its so obviose how bias you are towards the east coast.
Official snowfall tally for the recent storm in Ohio.Total of 9 inches in northern Holmes county Ohio.
Art: Or is it because much of the population lives in the Central and East US and storms typically are most active away from the mountains?
Mike: Thanks for the report! It's been a long time since you've gotten snow (like many of us here), hope you enjoy it!
It's not about bias. How is reporting on snowfall amounts about bias? Now, if Andrew actually CONTROLLED the weather that'd be a different story. Sheesh.
Mike, congrats on the snow!!!!I am glad my prediction for an 8+ inch snowstorm for your area has been correct, and even happier that you finally got a decent storm!!!! My storm looks poss. Sat. Still too much uncertainty. ECMWF soln. I am using attm.
Andrew the East coast seem to be getting their share but for us in North Central Illinois aren't getting anything as far as moisture. We are dry and I am beginning to worry that our drought will continue
ERN WX...do u have ur own webpage?..(if so can i have the link). and also...whats ur prediction on the friday night storm for central and southern kentucky
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