My confidence is very low, and this is only just a mention of a possible snowfall.
Questions may be asked in comments.
Friday, January 27, 2012
February 4 Possible Snowfall
My confidence is very low, and this is only just a mention of a possible snowfall.
Questions may be asked in comments.
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10 comments:
Hello Andrew.How confident are you in this happening?So your saying over 5" is possible with this if it comes to life.Just a shot in the dark guess,how much snow could i recieve from this if it does occur?Holmes county Ohio.The locals are going crazy about this.
Your confidence is always low with every single storm this Winter. This is not predicting, this is Guessing!
I think people are being too harsh with Andrew. Too many things keep changing and a computer is only as good as the info that is put into it. If an observer put's something in the computer one way and the next day put's the same info into the same computer a different way, everything can change. Give the guy a break.
Wally in Huntley
HELLO WALLY.I SURELY HOPE YOUR NOT THINKING I'M BEING HARSH WITH ANDREW.I HAVE DEFENDED VERY RECENTLY WITH OTHERS WHO HAVE RUN HIM IN THE GROUND.I ALWAYS FOLLOW HIM THROUGH THICK AND THEN REGARDLESS HOW THE WEATHER VARIFIES.MIKE PAULOCSAK FROM HOLMESVILLE,OHIO,THE BUCKEYE STATE.
With the depth of the cold air progged by the GEM, I would expect snowfall ratios to be quite a bit higher than what you are using. I would say 17/1 ratio with a half an inch of liquid would bring snowfall on the order of 6-10 inches. I agree with you when you say that snowfall amounts could be higher if the storm occurs, especially if the Gulf of Mexico opens up and the system has plentiful moisture to work with. This would greatly enhance snowfall totals, especially in the Ohio Valley region.
HELLO JOSH.MIKE HERE!!THIS LOOKS PROMISING FOR US.I LIVE IN OHIO TO.I'M KEEPING MY HOPES UP FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.WE ARE BOUND TO GET HAMMERED CONSIDERING ALL THE RAIN WE HAVE BEEN GETTING!!
its going to be rain again
Mike: I would say at least 6 inches, factoring in ratios.
Anonymous #1: My confidence is low because I post long range storms so people are aware of a problem before it happens. I assure you this is not guessing. Otherwise I wouldn't even know what the stratosphere is.
Joshua: You are correct. With the Gulf moisture also comes the risk of a big dry slot...
Anonymous #2: I would not bittercast this storm- it looks interesting.
Mike: I think you really ought to watch out for this storm.
I agree. This storm needs to be watched if you live in the Ohio Valley and also the Northeast/Mid Atlantic. The storm track will be critical. Winter may try a shocking comeback. The weird thing that I have noticed is when things start looking really dim for winter, something great shows up shortly afterwards. The reason why confidence is low on this storm is because it is a week away. Computer models have been struggling even right up to storms. There are still many possible solutions with this storm system. One thing I know about Mike is he is not rude when he has a disagreement. He even defended Andrew. In the next three weeks I think there will be more snow than many have seen so far this winter! Troughs look to become more dominant, and some blocking is being shown. One week of blocking will give many people some good snowfall. Andrew, I noticed that accuweather has brought up your idea of a pattern changing storm. I wonder if this is it? Henry says that a -NAO will make this the east coast life saver. I will be sure to check your updated outlook. Good work, Andrew. Let's hope we get some snow!
good afternoon weather lovers....andrew, just caught our local newscast about this...they wont go into detail, since its sooo far out. i understand that. i see you told mike paulocsak, to "really ought to watch out for this storm." how is my location, of toledo, oh, looking at this point? thanks for all you do andrew, as i stated previously, you seem to be able to call these "storms" or weather events, much EARLIER in advance...and for that, i thank you.
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