It's official- I am throwing in my towel for the rest of winter 2011-2012.
Before anyone says anything, I firmly stand by statements that I meant when I said that there ought to have been more cold and snow this month- some indices were favorable and it just didn't happen.
Over the winter, I have been using a very wide variety of indices. What I have found is that some were favorable for snow at certain times while others weren't, and it's been going that way for some time. The more frequent -NAO/-AO is a plus, as was the +PNA, but an unfavorable MJO, among other things, crashed the party. Now, with the PNA going back negative and the NAO to stay around neutral, the window of opportunity we looked to have in February has been shut.
For the more recent range, the models have indeed been showing some cold weather entering the country. But in my gut, the PNA/NAO/EPO/WPO unfavorable combo are not pointing to a good outcome. This is put up against a favorable MJO, but even that can't be trusted as the Phase 8-Phase 1 looks to be moderate strength at best, rendering the cold's power weaker.
Thanks for a great winter season everyone. While it certainly wasn't the best, it was fun while it lasted.
If you have any questions, you can ask below. Other than the occasional indices update, this is about it for winter postings.
~Andrew
EDIT: I am not ruling out a few snowstorms or progressive cold shots.
Before anyone says anything, I firmly stand by statements that I meant when I said that there ought to have been more cold and snow this month- some indices were favorable and it just didn't happen.
Over the winter, I have been using a very wide variety of indices. What I have found is that some were favorable for snow at certain times while others weren't, and it's been going that way for some time. The more frequent -NAO/-AO is a plus, as was the +PNA, but an unfavorable MJO, among other things, crashed the party. Now, with the PNA going back negative and the NAO to stay around neutral, the window of opportunity we looked to have in February has been shut.
For the more recent range, the models have indeed been showing some cold weather entering the country. But in my gut, the PNA/NAO/EPO/WPO unfavorable combo are not pointing to a good outcome. This is put up against a favorable MJO, but even that can't be trusted as the Phase 8-Phase 1 looks to be moderate strength at best, rendering the cold's power weaker.
Thanks for a great winter season everyone. While it certainly wasn't the best, it was fun while it lasted.
If you have any questions, you can ask below. Other than the occasional indices update, this is about it for winter postings.
~Andrew
EDIT: I am not ruling out a few snowstorms or progressive cold shots.
11 comments:
Thanks for your honesty all winter. We've all tried to stay optimistic about this winter like you have but it hasn't played out this year.
I hope you had a good winter.I know spring will bring a major weather outbreak for my area.I have that feeling.I have never felt this feeling not for winter nor spring/summer.
Thanks for all you did and everything you taught me.
and also if its el nino next year if the right factors happen can it be cold and snowy in the great lakes region..
now its time for next years winter outlook
Hi Andrew.A few of us hung in there with you through this winter,i'm sure you know who i'm talking about.You did a GREAT job holding are hopes up for snow/cold this winter.All we can do is hope next winter will be the exact opposite of this one.I'll be here neext year to follow you if your still on this site.I'll still follow you in the spring/summer.I'm sure we will have our share of severe weather.We still may get the BIG one yet,who knows.
Wow I'm shocked. Right when some meterologists are getting excited for winter fun later, you have given up. And I never thought that we would reach a day when you officially gave up on winter. Maybe now we will get some snowstorms after you gave up because the Ohio Valley certainly didn't get any when you were strong on your "pattern change."
wow you were so confident and nothing happened...so winters over?well the groundhog disagrees
I would like to see a list of all variables that factor in in predicting weather, I know it's a long list but if people see all the variables they may have more respect for weather forecasters and the accuracy.
Andrew you gave it your best shot and I thank you for it. I still don't have all the abbreviation's down but you did teach me a lot. Again THANK YOU. I'll still check in everyday
One question,why are you giving up on winter.Surely it is not going to be as cold and snowy as it is in certain parts of Europe right now,but i'm sure there will be several snowstorms yet.As for the long term forecasting methods,forget about it.Let's try to focus on the short term.In a few weeks,i'm sure there will be some major snowstorms in the eastern part of the country.Just you wait and see!!!Some of the heaviest snowfalls have occured in late February-April.The point i'm trying to get across is it's WAY,WAY,WAy too early to give up.You'll see!!
PLEASE,PLEASE,PLEASE,PLEASE,PLEASE,DON'T GIVE UP YET!THERE WILL BE SOME BIG SNOWS SOON.JUST YOU WAIT AND SEE!IGNORE THE MODELS!
Everyone- I have re-analyzed the situation. I did not make the right move in declaring winter was over. This post is void.
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