Friday, March 30, 2012

2012-2013 Preliminary Winter Forecast

Hello everyone and here is the long-awaited 2012-2013 Preliminary Winter Forecast.
I have to say, I don't have too much information to share as a lot of pieces are too far out, so this is more of an examination of the ENSO conditions.

This past winter we were in a fake La Nina. It had a La Nina, but with El Nino weather conditions resulting. This summer, we are expected to have a neutral ENSO condition, and by this winter we may even have a slight El Nino. Here's a forecast for DJF (December, January, February) 2012-2013 off the Scripps ENSO Model.

The Scripps Model is forecasting a east-Based El Nino. There is indeed a difference between west based and east based. However, we won't dig into that because it is too far out to tell at this point.
Here's the average precipitation and temperature (respectively) results from weak El Ninos.

A weak El Nino typically brings slightly below average temperatures to the country, while bringing more precipitation to the East Coast and below normal rainfall for the Southeast.

Because it is so far out and I don't have too much to work with, here is what I will say:
•Weak El Nino likely
•Probably more precipitation for the East Coast



ERN WX said...

THanks a lot for putting out this forecast. I think that EVERYONE will have a much better winter than last year. The biggest reason is the low sunspot cycle. This encourages a - Nao which encourages colder conditions for the East, Ohio Valley, and Midwest. If you add in the weak Nino which encourages cooler than average conditions and an active southern jet (more precip) snowier than normal conditions will likely be favored for the bulk of the country. If you experience a cooler than normal fall and a wetter than normal fall, you will be cooler and snowier than average. Why? Because the atmosphere has a terrible habit of remebering itself. I'll try to get more in later.

mike paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew and ERN WX! Pretty impressive SQUALLLINE moving through central and southern Ohio right now at 9:34 pm.I can hear thunder and see some pretty good lightning from a distance where i live.I had some storms earlier,thankfully the big ones missed me.Hopefully no damage will be caused by these.Take care! I forgot to mention,i'm hoping i'll have a snowier winter next year.

ERN WX said...

Hello, Mike. That squall line that went through Ohio was indeed impressive. At leats one reported tornado and plenty of wind and hail. Wish I could get storms like that right now! My svr season is summer though. Take care!

ERN WX said...

Those storms are now showers with embedded t-storms. They will move thru my area shortly. Best they'll produce is small hail.

ERN WX said...

Nao looks to take its longest and deepest dive since last AUGUST! Wow!

Anonymous said...

wow i hope we see alot of snow and heavy snow in western PA (westmoralnd) i really hope to see tons of snow unlike last year.