Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Long Range Christmas Forecast Suggests a Stormy Plains, Midwest

A very preliminary look at the Long Range Christmas Forecast suggests that a strong storm system could make for a messy couple of days across the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes.

Using a pre-determined pattern for this winter (which many of you know as the LRC), tweaked slightly to fit what I believe is in line with observed conditions in the past several weeks, I have determined that there is a likelihood of a stormy Christmas for the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes as a few storm system have the potential to follow on one another's heels, one of which could strike on Christmas Eve/Day.

The Southwest would likely emerge warm and dry from such a situation, while the Plains encounters frigid conditions in the wake of such a fast and strong train of storm systems. Snowfall accumulations would most likely be centered in the Plains and Great Lakes, while the Midwest could be in a dicey situation as far as precipitation potential goes.

This does have the potential to fail, but I believe I have a pretty good idea at the moment of what Christmas could be like. PLEASE DO NOT take this as an actual forecast. If you even want to think about this forecast, take it as ADVICE- we remain nearly 2 MONTHS away from Christmas- a huge timeframe for things to alter this forecast.



KakHome said...

What for Cleveland, OH?

mike paulocsak said...

Big warm up for the Ohio area this weekend.Don't get too used to it though.A strong cold front will put an end to that early next week.

Anonymous said...

I'm curious... are you guys now leaning more towards a snowier than before predicted Midwest. Cause I live in Southeastern Minnesota and that would be just great if we were getting dumped on this winter.

Anonymous said...

I definitely would not consider this a forecast because Christmas is so far away. But I have to say that if the central Pacific remains warmer than the eastern Pacific and the cold water reamins North and Northwest of Hawaii and the NAO is thought to be mostly negative this year I would have to guess that the storm tracks would be along the southern states and then up along the east coast as has been the pattern up til now.

bjenks said...

Andrew, I have visited your post on a daily basis for the past two winters. I occasionally will visit during the spring/summer for severe events. Learned of the LRC three years ago via John Belski's blog in Lou. KY. I also follow C. Baily out of the Lex., KY. area. I have followed the LRC and these storm systems do seem to circle the globe and strike areas multiple times through winter. One thing I will say is that they also move North and South by a few hundred miles. I like the chances of above normal snow for most MW/OV/NE. Thanks your hard work. Have learned many met. terms from your sight.

Anonymous said...

Thank you Andrew for all you do. I have learned a lot here.

Andrew said...

KakHome: I believe you already saw your question was answered on Facebook, so it will not be answered here.

Mike: A *sustained* warm-up this month is unlikely- a fair sign for winter.

Anonymous #1: The Midwest is still a little tricky, but is looking pretty good at the moment for precipitation and temperatures.

Anonymous #2: It is indeed a forecast, but you may call it what you want. The NAO/ENSO are not the only indices to affect this winter- don't forget the PNA/AO/MJO, among others.

bjenks: It makes me very happy to know you've been following for so long. Thank you. Yes, the LRC, as magnificent as it is, tends to move storms around slightly from cycle to cycle.

Anonymous #3: Thank YOU for following!

Anonymous said...

Andrew I am not here to nit pick or contradict you but here is your exact words on that article "PLEASE DO NOT take this as an actual forecast" so I just re-stated what you had said and was Agreeing with you that it is too far off to state without hesitation that this is what the weather map will look like for Christmas. I am also quite aware of the other signals but in my years of being a weather weenie the NAO and Ao are usually a very trong signaland can dominate other signals that may be somewhat weaker.