The image shown depicts the GFS model on the left and NAM model on the right, images courtesy of Weatherbell. The models are forecasting accumulated snowfall to reach significant amounts in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. The GFS believes much of Virginia will experience the brunt of this snowfall, with east Kentucky and east Tennessee getting in on the snowy fun. As far as the NAM model goes, a wide swath of snow appears forecasted across all of Virginia, especially in the western part of the states. Southern West Virginia is also primed for accumulating snowfall in the NAM's scenario, with KY and TN finding themselves with shovel-able snow.
Here is my snow day forecast for January 18:
9 comments:
Finally, the Shenandoah Valley may get something!! Wanted to let you know that I have passed your website on to several science teachers (middle school) in my district. They love the graphics and use it frequently in their classroom. Thanks for putting it all together and making it an easy way to teach weather science.
Nice update, but some areas of western VA could see as much as 18", and you should have added a "very good" if not "likely" potential for a snow day across that area. Most schools are not going open with even over 6 inches of snow in those areas. Just a piece of advise for ya!
Anonymous at 5:26: Forecasts are actually going down now. I'm still sticking with my forecast.
Anonymous at 12:21: Thanks much for passing it along! I appreciate it!
For the SE things still look great, but for the cities of NYC, PHL, etc; things aren't good for substantial snow. The NW trend in the mdls has changed to a SE trend. This change has been caused by a weker SE ridge and weaker lopres system overall. SE of I-95 has the best chance of 1-3 inches. Very low confidence, attm.
Reply to the 5:26 post: Okay, that's fine, but I'm telling you, this is the biggests storm in a long time for some aras, and the snow will be heavy/wet, coupled wth 35-40 mph wind gusts could create power outages as well. Regardless, I still think a snow day is a LIKELY probability across far southern West VA, west-central VA and northwest North Carolina.
Great update, Andew, but the above user is correct. A snow day has already been called here in Floyd, VA with 10-14" expected here. My surrounding areas are also expected to get clobbered. Floyd is about 50 miles or so from Roakoke, VA. The heaviest snows look to be roughtly west of a Roanoke to Mount Airy line, where amounts in excess of 8" are epxected. East of there, more in the 4-8" range.
John McDaniels Jr: Interesting. A last-minute model scare and apparently me looking at the wrong winter storm warnings led to this. My apologies, I was wrong. One of the issues here was also the snow day chart, I have been meaning to simplify it to fewer colors.
PLEASE ANSWER FAST: Can someone please explain to me why Danville,VA only has a 2 Hour Delay? Normally if we get 2 or 3 inches school is cancelled. We've gotton 3 already and there's still more to come. Also its going to rain, then freeze. Making black ice. They need to cancel school, can someone tell me why they didn't?
Post a Comment