Friday, February 1, 2013

Christmas Day Severe Weather Outbreak Could Repeat on Valentine's Day

The atmosphere could very well shape up into a situation that mimics the set-up that occurred on Christmas Day, 2012. The 500 millibar map from that day is shown above. We can see the storm system pushing down well into the Southern Plains, as depicted by the word 'Low' on the map. The national atmospheric flow appears not too disturbed in the East, with the exception of a weak ridge of high pressure in the Southeast. Stronger high pressure stands its ground on the West Coast, and this is the factor that typically allows storms to move east-northeast to affect the Midwest and Plains. The Southeast ridge also supports this.

We all know how that day turned out. Many Christmas celebrations were interrupted by wailing tornado sirens as a tornado outbreak hit. It started in Houston, and ended the day in far eastern Alabama. Along the way, 175 severe weather reports were submitted to the Storm Prediction Center, 60 of which were tornado reports.

I find it plausible that such a situation could indeed happen again, on Valentine's Day. The Lezak Recurring Cycle, which is a repeating weather pattern that occurs through the fall into spring, has a repetition length, or cycle length, of 53 days. This means that 53 days in the future from Christmas is when this atmospheric set-up could come back. And when we tally up the dates, we find that the 53 day mark lines up with Valentine's Day. Not a good thing to see.

I will publish more on this developing situation, and will always let you in on the latest in breaking weather, especially with this system.


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