The GFS model has been forecasting a fairly strong storm hitting the Midwest for a few days now, off and on again every few runs. The track has varied from run to run, but more times than not it has had the storm go into the Midwest. And when it does go into the Midwest, more times than not it takes the track shown above. As is my favorite guideline to abide by when tracking storms, always look for the trends and not the individual runs. I post this individual run because it sums up what the GFS has been showing for multiple days now.
Confidence in a fairly strong storm system hitting the region shown by the GFS: 15% confidence