Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Late April Snow Potential Means Winter Not Done Yet

WARNING: The chances of this actually happening are essentially zero. DO NOT take this as an actual forecast. Take it as the smallest grain of salt known to man.

The long range CFS model is projecting an increase in snow depth across the Ohio Valley and Northeast in 2 of the 4 CFS ensemble forecast members. All of the ensemble members have an increase in snow depth across a portion of the northern US. While usually the agreement of all of the ensemble members of snow in some portion of the North US is encouraging to the validity of the forecast, I have a hard time believing that there will be a snow event in late April.

For one, the increased intensity of the sun greatly discourages snowfall potential. For another, the Northern Hemisphere's climate is naturally changing over to a springtime ''feeling'', with warmer temperatures covering a greater portion of the nature, and an increasing warm sector to the east of storm systems. However, with continuing chances for an unusually weak polar vortex, cold air will be relatively easier to come by, especially in the Northeast. To up the ante, an unusually active Pacific jet stream could draw in more cold air to the south, increasing chances for snow.

Again, this is almost certainly not going to verify, but the fact that the chance is even being suggested is a testament that this winter is unlikely to go quietly.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

We had 38" in W Md on 4//28/1928 and Skyline Drive Va got 12" on 4/28/1978 donut is possible! Google the 28/27/28 Storm in State College Pa!