Monday, March 4, 2013

March 4-6 High-Impact Midwest/Plains Winter Storm

I am still sticking with my current forecast projection as the storm nears the still-uncertain areas in Chicago and the Midwest. I find that the 6-10 inch swath of snow remains valid in the face of new model runs that remain steadfast with snow in those areas. The forecast challenge comes along with the Chicagoland area in particular, where recent model runs have been toying with the idea of moving this heavy snowfall area a bit further south, while other regional model try to keep it in a position that would most certainly dump lots of snow across the entire northern Illinois area.

Because Chicago is in the zone of uncertainty, I made a regional snowfall forecast so the people in this massive city can get a better view of what I think is headed their way. At this time, lake enhancement appears likely, allowing me to add a small zone in white right along the western shore of Lake Michigan that includes the city and suburbs of Chicago. Current thinking is that 6-10 inches area-wide is a solid bet, with the higher end totals the farther east towards the city you go.



Anonymous said...

looks like this storm later on will be the last snow storm for me in Ohio valley :(
Plus this one is only supposed to be a couple inches

Anonymous said...

What is your forecast for this storm later in the week. Will it turn North in the Atlantic and bring snow into the Northeast?

Ray T. said...

Northwest Indiana is going to get creamed. Latest In-House model suggests 12.3"-14.5" across Lake/Porter counties. Nice update, but you need to expand that 10-14" southeastward, and actually shift it. The tracks favor a slightly further south placement of the heaviest snow axis that your grapic shows. I know this post was updated several hours ago, so I'm just informing you! Keep up the great work, Andrew. You've been a great service to our country! You're a weather troop!!! God Bless and everyone stay safe.

-Ray Timmons
@NWS Chicago/Romeoville, IL

Andrew said...

Anonymous at 8:43: I have yet to review that and may not be able to today.

Ray: Appreciate the notes on the model guidance! Yeah, the graphic was more aimed at the Chicagoland area, I forgot to put more emphasis on areas further away from Chicago. VERY much appreciate the kind words, to be frank your work in the NWS is much more noteworthy than mine. :)

Alice McDonald said...

Today I learned to do snow removal before backing out of the garage. Ten inches here. Thanks as always Andrew, for the early notification.