Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Invest 90E - Tropical Cyclone Development Possible

Tropical invest 90 has formed in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The National Hurricane Center has gauged this invest to have a 30 percent chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours.

Discussion... Tropical convection has formed to the south of Mexico and has concentrated itself into an area of low pressure. This low pressure area has no defined circulation or extreme convection, indicating tropical cyclone development will likely occur in the 48 to 72 hour period, if development occurs at all.

Model guidance predicts this system to move generally to the northwest over the next few days, while intensity forecasts project this cyclone to develop into a cyclone generally between the Hour 36 and Hour 72 mark. This puts us in the latter half of the workweek to see the first real chance of development.


Chance of tropical cyclone development: Medium-High
Chance of hurricane development: Low
Chance of major hurricane development: Very Low
Chance of landfall: Very Low


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