Saturday, May 18, 2013

Monday Holds Uncertainties, Dangers

Monday's severe weather threat does not look to be as significant as Sunday, but the uncertainties that currently remain may highlight the dangers that already exist.

Model guidance indicates that after Sunday's big display of severe weather, Monday should hold the severe threat further to the east, although not as intense. It appears that conditions favorable for supercell development will be centered from southern Oklahoma as far north as central Wisconsin, and as far east as the outskirts of Detroit. As of now, the question still remains as to what the main threat will be. It's been back and forth between a tornadic feel and a damaging wind feel for this event, especially in the Midwest, but I'd have to side with the climatologically-favored damaging wind threat. Tornadoes aren't known to be that prevalent east of the Mississippi. However, down south in Oklahoma, the threat stands for all forms of severe weather, which could include extreme hail/damaging winds or even strong tornadoes.

I should know more tomorrow when Sunday's event gets underway, although the details for Monday could very well be unknown until Monday morning when the event is finished. You have to account for things like remnant outflow boundaries that could ignite storms later in the day.


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