Sunday, June 30, 2013

Active Weather Pattern Quieting Down

The active weather pattern we have seen in the last several weeks, where multiple significant tornadoes and severe weather outbreaks combined with the first two tropical cyclones of the Atlantic hurricane season, appears to be coming to an end in the next several days.

Projected mid level atmospheric flow turns firmly zonal by the start of the second full week of July, as strong low pressure originating from northeast Canada combines with the tendency of the atmosphere to favor ridging in the Northeast to regulate the flow over North America. When this period of zonal flow starts, no extreme hot or cold weather episodes are expected, and severe weather outbreaks are not encouraged. The lack of a wavy jet stream will permit the formation of a quiet weather pattern over North America.

Longer range forecasts favor the development of high pressure over the Rockies that may attempt to transition over into the Plains or even Ohio Valley areas. Whether that potential verifies remains to be seen. 


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