Text Forecast for August, 2013

This is a text forecast for the month of August, 2013.

After a heat wave across much of the nation in the middle of the month, it is expected that the month of July will be seen as the more intense month when compared to August.

I anticipate the atmosphere to favor high pressure formation across the West Coast into the Rockies, as a rather strong negative correlation exists between June values of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), and mid level height anomalies across the Rockies and the West Coast, and even towards New England and the waters off that area. The AAO ended up negative for the month of June, thus my expectation of high pressure formation across the Rockies.

I do expect periodic instances where the high pressure system in the Rockies will propagate into the Plains and possibly eastward into the Ohio Valley. This probability would rise if the New England area also experiences high pressure growth due to the aforementioned negative correlation. 

The Midwest and portions of the Plains will likely endure multiple cool weather periods, as disturbances drop in from Canada and set up a depression in the jet stream that will offer rather enjoyable temperatures in these regions. The passage of cold fronts through these areas also increases the chance of precipitation across the middle of the nation, so it is not a bad idea to believe these areas have a shot at above average precipitation for the month of August.

Primary severe weather event location is expected to stretch from the Northern Plains to the Midwest, as disturbances riding the jet stream will couple with intermittent cold front passages in the Midwest to highlight these areas for severe weather potential. Tornado numbers are expected to end up below average for the month of August, due to a lack of a highly meridional (very wavy) jet stream and displacement of the highest instability to the south of the main upper level flow. Any tornadoes that do occur would be favored in the Northern Plains, at the peak of the jet stream above the high pressure system in the Rockies.

-Forecast Summary by Region-

Midwest

Precipitation: Above Average

Temperature: Slightly Below Average

Northeast

Precipitation: Slightly Below Average

Temperature: Slightly Above Average

Southeast

Precipitation: Below Average

Temperature: Average

South Central

Precipitation: Average

Temperature: Average

West

Precipitation: Above in north, Below in south

Temperature: Average to Above Average

Andrew