Wednesday, November 13, 2013

December 2-3 Potential Winter Storm

To continue the new trend of non-model forecasting, it appears the Plains will be at risk for a winter storm around December 2-3.

This is an image of winter storm Atlas, which produced massive snow totals across the Dakotas and killed thousands upon thousands of cattle. Atlas hit the Plains between October 5-6, and if you haven't guessed already, this storm is a part of the Lezak Recurring Cycle. The Lezak Recurring Cycle, or LRC, is a tool developed by meteorologist Gary Lezak that, in essence, can enable forecasters to predict the overall weather pattern months in advance. The gist of the LRC involves a cycling weather pattern that develops in October and November of each year; no pattern is the same from year to year. Around mid November, the LRC begins to repeat, meaning we start to see a similar weather pattern in mid November that we saw in early October. This means that the cycling pattern has begun, and it will continue to cycle on a 40-60 day interval for the next ~10 months before it dissipates over the following summer. With the new cycle determined to be ~57 days, the October 5-6 timeframe comes out to December 2-3 of this year.

While the track of an LRC storm is never 100% the same as last time, the upper level pattern should be similar enough to maintain at least a similar track. However, there are some caveats when you enter the teleconnection department.

For one, the North Atlantic Oscillation is projected to be in moderately negative territory in the days leading up to this potential winter storm. If the energy that was Winter Storm Atlas in early October is able to be pushed down south enough this time around in December, it could get into the southern jet stream and may sneak up on the East Coast. For consistency's sake, I'll place my bets on a Plains winter storm again, but it's very possible we see this energy meander somewhere else like the Midwest, Ohio Valley, or even Northeast. This will become clearer in the weeks ahead, but right now, there is definitely some reason to believe that there may be a winter storm in the December 2-3 timeframe.

Andrew

20 comments:

Josh Mumbrue said...

Bring Wisconsin 5 ft of snow!! And are you expecting snow for Wisconsin?

Shawn said...

I think it would be awesome if indeed we had a moderate NAO that it could push the storm south to possible parts of the Midwest perhaps including the show me state of Missouri and other states like Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, etc.

Anonymous said...

Oh god...can this get any better?
Thank you Andrew! But I wasn't wanting this, hopefully if it happens, it will go to the ones that really love this kind of weather!
Don't get me wrong, I do want a dusting for Christmas...but, it's not Christmas yet!!
bree

Anonymous said...

Is this the same storm from November 24-28 .

Anonymous said...

I'm consiren for the east coast if the southeast ridge comes to play

Anonymous said...

Can we really discuss a potential storm that is almost 3 weeks down the road? Does Accuweather pay you?

Robert Smith said...

Wow surprised you are using the weather channels winter storm naming convention.....I love the post though....thanks for sharing

Anonymous said...

Why not make a post about the high potential of severe wx on Sunday? The wind fields are tremendous and there is a fairly significant amount of instability for mid-late November. I'm thinking lots of tornados and very scary situations.

Anonymous said...

I see you won't approve comments that question why you would discuss a winter storm that is almost 3 weeks away. Plus you ignore when people ask you about the LRC.. which has no scientific support.

Andrew said...

Wait and see mode. Unconvinced it will be doomsday, will ablaze event closer tomorrow.

Andrew said...

Typo: will analyze again tomorrow.

Andrew said...

Can't help it if my fingers get tired from typing "October 5-6 storm system" several times. Keep an open mind- I can only type as much as my fingers will let me.

Andrew said...

Apologies for not being hooked to the computer 24/7. In all seriousness, not about to debate LRC. It is proven, case closed.

Andrew said...

We can, and we will make posts like these. Unconventional is the way to go.

Shawn said...

Yeah Andrew tell it like it is!

Anonymous said...

"In all seriousness, not about to debate LRC. It is proven, case closed."
Really? Where is this scientific evidence? Where is the study that proves it? I haven’t seen one. I don’t want to debate with you, I want you to show me the evidence. If it is proven, then there has to be a link out there with evidence that is supported by the meteorological community.

Anonymous said...

And I am not trying to give you a hard time about the LRC. I love reading your blog, but it must be easy to understand why I have my doubts when you never respond to it or give any evidence. Have any examples of it verifying? If its proven, then it must verify more times than not so you should have a lot of examples.

Andrew said...

The evidence is there, all you need to do is look.

LRC AccuWeather Forum thread: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=30993&pid=1767045&st=140&#entry1767045

Anonymous said...

A link to an accuweather forum is the evidence? That really isn't evidence. I guess we will have to agree to disagree. Great work though. Your blog has been one of my favorites for the past year.

Anonymous said...

Andrew Wat u think the chances of a east coast storm will be and will the southeast ridge will come in play?