Sunday, November 24, 2013

December 4-8 Potential Winter Storm

It looks rather possible that the US will experience a winter storm around the December 4-8 time period.

As the image above shows, there will be a rather deep area of negative height anomalies over East Asia for November 28th, as exhibited by the dark blues in the top left of the left-hand panel. There is a knwon correlation that indicates storm systems or ridges of high pressure over East Asia can be reciprocated in the United States 6-10 days after the event's occurrence in East Asia. As we see a stormy period begin in East Asia over November 28th, I would expect December 4-8 to be the timeframe for a winter storm in the US as a result of this East Asian correlation. There are already a couple of guesses put out by the ECMWF control run. The most recent forecast has a storm system targeting the Midwest and Great Lakes for snow, as shown below (note the yellow arrow denoting the storm track)...

ECMWF Ensemble Control MSLP anomaly projection for December 5th
The second-newest ECMWF control run actually develops a stronger storm towards the end of this December 4-8 timeframe, unlike the December 5th projection from the ECMWF control...

ECMWF Ensemble Control MSLP anomaly projection for December 8th
As you can see, there is still a lot of time for this to be figured out, and the level of uncertainty is very high as far as who may be affected. What I am decently certain of, though, is that there is a chance for a winter storm in this timeframe.



Anonymous said...

For the secind run with the stronger storm, where is it projected to be?

Andrew said...

It is projected to be in the lower Ohio Valley, as the deep blues show.

Anonymous said...

As long as its kept away from my area for god's sake, I'm highly allergic to that stuff!

ChrisChristensen87 said...

Models have been teasing some arctic air moving into the Pacific Northwest next week, what is your opinion on this? Thanks!

Anonymous said...

what if i am the farmer down the road and i need this wet stuff no matter what form it comes in.
what if it makes the difference wether you pay $2 or $5 for that loaf of bread or wether i can make my bank payment or not.
instead of cursing this moisture
why dont you pray that you have the strenght to get thru the tough times because a lot of farmers will glady take this stuff anyway they can get it