Tuesday, December 3, 2013

December 8-10 Potential Major Winter Storm

Models are hinting at the potential for a major winter storm in the Midwest and Ohio Valley between December 8th and 10th.

Model guidance indicates a storm system will push down into the Southwest and eventually shift eastward to begin its trek across the Plains and East US. Pattern will likely hold ridging in the Southeast for this potential storm, meaning the East Coast (except the Northeast) is essentially out of the race for this potential winter storm. It is expected that the storm system will move northeast after it ejects into the Southern Plains, and current expectations are for the storm to traverse an area from Texas to western New York state.

Models are having a bit of trouble with this system, as there is the chance of phasing prior, during or just after this storm moves through the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes. My take is that we should see snowfall amounts strengthen from the meager totals they currently are, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a northward shift occur as well, depending on future model solutions. The reason I say I wouldn't be surprised with a northward shift is because that Southeast ridge should most likely prevent any major southward shift. Again, models are iffy to trust, and should be iffy to trust up until the event actually happens. Here are the solutions from the GEM and ECMWF, respectively:






You can see the spread in the GFS ensembles, showing the discrepancies that still have to be resolved.



Andrew

11 comments:

Mark said...

It will be interesting to see where the rain-snow line ends up. It appears the models are pushing this line north as the precip arrives, so here in Pittsburgh it appears to be mainly a rain event. But you never know. Often times those that end up just north of the line end up getting the most snow. Thanks for the great posts, Andrew.

Mark said...

It will be interesting to see where the rain-snow line ends up. It appears the models are pushing this line north as the precip arrives, so here in Pittsburgh it appears to be mainly a rain event. But you never know. Often times those that end up just north of the line end up getting the most snow. Thanks for the great posts, Andrew.

Jeffrey Owens said...

i really beginning to hate the southeast this stupid block seems to come every year the last 5 years and we are not getting any cold are snow why is this are we ever going to get any snow in nc a big one would would really be nice what u think on this andrew any thoughts on to why we getting this block want it to end in the south

Owen12789 said...

How will this storm affect central illinois?

Anonymous said...

Your timing is way off, it starts Friday, Dec 6th where the winter storm warnings are already out.

Andrew said...

Jeffery: The pattern is La Nina-ish, and it should continue into the future.

Owen: Potential snowfall.

Anonymous at 4:44: That is incorrect. There are several waves that will be passing through the region. The December 8-10 one is different than this late week storm.

Anonymous said...

Hi Andrew when do u think it will get cold and have some snow chances here in east tn and when will the southeast ridge go away or will it this winter

Shawn said...

Could this December 8-10 winter storm produce significant snowfall in Central/East Central Missouri which is my location?

Anonymous said...

No update for tonight!!??

We are waiting for an update about the storm tonight and the next storm on Sunday!

chris said...

Is there any winter storm that's going to hit Alabama maybe ice at any chance

Anonymous said...

does anybody have any input on this big storm that starts in kansas/colorado then moves towards the lakes
i here it starts the weekend before christmas and it will be a monster of a blizzard ?
thoughts anybody ?