Tuesday, July 23, 2013

CFS Consistently Showing Cold Winter Ahead

The CFS model has been showing forecasts depicting a cold Eastern US winter for well over a month now, leading to speculation that this model may be on to something.

The CFS model performed well in its prediction for last winter, indicating a likelihood for above normal temperatures across the Northern US in its forecasts roughly a year ago this month. While the winter of 2012-2013 verified with above normal temperatures across the Eastern and Central US, the model did get the gist of a warmer than normal nation for that winter. It appears that this year's forecast shown above for December 2013 (left) and January 2014 (right) may be trying to accomplish the same feat.

I have been doing extensive research and work into items I plan on using for my Official winter forecast. Some of these items are not that favorable for a real winter, while some items do support a chillier winter this year. I will put it all together when the forecast is released this September, but this prolonged trend of a cold winter by the CFS model is something to watch for. I'm not saying it will define my overall forecast, but this cold weather trend will be accounted for in the future.



Anonymous said...

Well that does not sound very good!
Although I have heard if its real cold, then it would be to cold to snow....I can live with cold! If I had to pick one to live with and the choice being real cold or snow...I pick real cold. Now I do not like neither, but if I was forced to choose between the two, bring on the cold! Not both! God could you imagine! Andrew, I appreciate you..but...if you come out in September & say cold & snow..I will, well I'll still read your blog as I have to know when to kennel my dogs & rent a room in town, but I will not like it!

Anonymous said...

Hey Andrew!

Will you be doing local winter forecasts again ( when we were able to submit our town and you give us a forecast)? Really looking forward to your official forecast!

Andrew said...

Bree: Luckily, this is still July so there is a lot of time for the forecast to change. I hope for your sake it doesn't end up this cold!

Anonymous at 10:20: Due to the increasing number of viewers and the limited time I usually have to make these forecasts, I decided to make 20 cities' forecasts for this winter, covering all regions of the country, as well as skiing and lake effect snow regions.

Anonymous said...

Yeah yeah yeah, we'll just have to wait and see. It's always backwards. They call for cold and we end up warm, they call for warm we end up cold. Whatever happens, happens. Trying to "forecast" that far out is a joke, and a waste of time. We can barely forecast 2 days ahead of time let alone months.