Saturday, February 8, 2014

February 10-12 Significant Southeast Snowstorm

Once again, we're looking at the possibility of a significant snowstorm in the Southeast US.


The NAM model above shows projected snowfall amounts over the next 84 hours. In this forecast, we see significant snowfall hitting the states of Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama, as well as North and South Carolina. The NAM model puts down amounts of 4-8" in eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi and southwestern Tennessee, as well as in portions of North Carolina. The NAM model had previously been showing amounts well in excess of 12", though its latest numbers are far more believable.

This image shows the high resolution NAM model forecast snowfall over the next 60 hours. While it retains the name of the NAM model, it is more closely associated with the WRF modeling system, has better resolution in its 'foundation', if you will, and only goes out to 60 hours instead of 84. The high resolution NAM model has a similar forecast as its lower resolution counterpart, laying down bands of 6" amounts in eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee. The high resolution NAM is more open to putting down some big snows in Louisiana and central Mississippi, though due to its snowy bias we'll have to wait and see what other high resolution guidance says. The model also agrees with another spot of heavy snows in western North Carolina, but because the model only goes out to 60 hours, it doesn't capture the full snowfall of the event in eastern North Carolina.

To sum up:

•A significant winter storm is expected to impact portions of the Southeast.

•Arkansas, Tennessee, and North Carolina are at risk for snowfalls in excess of 6".

•Travel may be severely hampered- stay home and plan ahead as best as possible.

Andrew

5 comments:

Justin B said...

I don't mean to criticize here but never base a forecast off of one model run.

nikki phillips Nicholson said...

Noooooo........not agin....!

Anonymous said...

Justin B, the Southeast snowstorm has been shown for a couple days now. Also, I believe Andrew knows what he is talking about, and knows not to "model hug".

Bryan Belter said...

Andrew,

What happened to your comment about no more big systems for the southeast??

Harris Chewning said...

Yea I thought there would be no more down here me hopes were lost when I read that.....glad this one showed up I live in Asheville and we are long overdue for a big storm it's been 2 years and almost no snow at all hope it s a good one one!