Friday, May 9, 2014

JMA Model Predicting Strong El Nino to Develop for Winter 2014-2015

The Japanese Meteorological Agency's long range climate model is predicting a strong El Nino to develop in time for the upcoming winter.

Shown above we see the predicted sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the yellow squares from present day to about October 2014, with observed SST anomalies in the red circles on the left side of the graph. We see that the JMA model is predicting a rather linear rise in sea surface temperature anomalies into this summer and fall, reaching El Nino territory by late spring. The shaded red region in this graph indicates the threshold and SST anomalies that define an El Nino (+0.5 degrees C or above), while the blue shaded region defines official La Nina SST anomalies (-0.5 degrees C or below).

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) here in the United States makes its own climate model as well, named the Coupled Forecast System model (CFS). The CFS model above shows a linear increase in SST anomalies as well, maxing out at around 1.5 degrees Celsius for November-December-January in 2014-2015. The 1.5 degrees C above normal benchmark is also the threshold for a Strong El Nino, meaning such an El Nino of that strength is still possible (though in my personal opinion, not as likely). The general gist of these two models is that we can expect an El Nino to develop later on this summer, likely to strengthen through the fall and into this winter.



Anonymous said...

When that happens what will the winter most likely be like?
Warm? Colder then this past winter?
What are your thoughts?

Thank you in advance!

Frank-o said...

..If indeed we get a super or strong El-Nino, for us here in NC @ zipcode 28659, it can spell bad news for snow lovers. These types of wetaher patterns can cause really abnormal high temps in the Mid Section/Ohio Valley and.. The entire East Coast from the Gulf all the way to Canada.
While a weak to moderate El-Nino can mean lots of wet heavy deep snows every 4 days or so in cycles of 2 weeks runs, especially in up State GA, SC, and in most if not all of North Carolina, as we tend to be in the sweet spot!
We snow lovers have been hoping for a El-Nino winter since 2009/2010 as that was the last one.
On average, the stronger the El Niño episode, the warmer and wetter the winters have been.
Remember:.....During strong El Niño episodes, the bulk of the cold air remains north of the mid-Atlantic region, often resulting in precipitation falling as rain instead of changing to snow.
This is so much fun to watch! Thanks for all your hard work Andrew!!!

BearCub said...

It will be interesting to see how this forecast develops. Joe Bastardi is forecasting that the El Nino will fade as we approach Fall and Winter, producing more cold and snow. A weak El Nino could also be a big snow producer if the forecasts were to meet in the middle.