Sunday is being monitored for potentially significant severe weather.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the Plains and Midwest for severe weather on Sunday. The Slight Risk covers eastern Nebraska, northern Kansas, northwestern Missouri, Iowa, southeast South Dakota, much of Missouri, Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The most elevated risk inside this overall outlook area extends from eastern Nebraska to west-central Wisconsin.
Projected instability values off of the NAM model show figures in excess of 4000 j/kg situated from Kansas to Iowa, which should be more than enough to fire off these storms as a disturbance propagates eastward across the northern Plains. Shear from the surface to the 500mb layer looks to grow to upwards of 60 knots across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with spots of 70 knots also being found. It does appear that the initial storms that fire look to have some substantial tornado potential, with the aforementioned instability and shear present. As the night wears on, the expectation is for these cells to coagulate into a mesoscale convective system, which will then likely shift off to the east overnight. A strengthening nocturnal lower level jet stream should enable this eastward progression to continue.
|Instant Weather Maps|