Monday, July 7, 2014

El Nino in Serious Trouble; Upcoming Winter In Question

The El Nino that has been widely discussed across the meteorological community appears to be in serious trouble.

If we look at a graph of upper-ocean heat anomalies, one way to measure the water temperature anomalies near the surface, we can see the evolution of the projected El Nino this past spring. We see how heat anomalies soared as Kelvin Wave-induced warm waters began hitting the surface after posting record-breaking numbers underwater weeks earlier. However, beginning in May, we began to see heat anomalies drop off, and it is only recently that we have seen oceanic heat anomalies plummet to levels that indicate the El Nino is no longer present. This comes as a shock to the system, after we observed that record-breaking Kelvin Wave this past spring.

Refresh page if animation is not looping
An animation of water anomalies on a depth-by-latitude chart reveals this dramatic reversal of water anomalies in the Pacific. We saw how the record-breaking Kelvin Wave began hitting the surface in May, but from there, cooler than normal anomalies are seen about 100-150 meters down just eating up the warmth. Now, as we start off the month of July, we find ourselves with barely anything to hang onto that would allow us to call this a potential El Nino.

All of this brings the upcoming winter into question, creating what could be a whole new ballgame. If this El Nino fails to form, which is becoming more and more of a possibility with each passing week, we're looking at a drastically-altered landscape in terms of expected precipitation and temperature anomalies over North America. 

This situation will be revisited in coming weeks.



Anonymous said...

How much of the under water temperature anomalies are caused by the eruption or lack thereof of underwater volcanoes. If they do have an effect how can you ever factor that in?.

BearCub said...

I remember reading that Strong El Ninos spell doom for cold Winters in the Eastern US. While weaker El Ninos can increase snow fall. I am not surprised to see it fade. With so many other factors indicating a cold snowy Winter (you detailed a few of them), I am looking for a cold snowy Winter again.

Anonymous said...

Not surprised. I am a weather nut myself, and I have been saying for months that it is not going to happen. My prediction - a rerun of last winter. I live in Ofallon Mo and see the exact signs in nature that I saw a year ago occurring - if not, even happening a year earlier. My hollies are BURRIED in berries. Spider webs are high - very early, but I remember shaking my head last year thinking here we go. Doing the same today.

Bob Rutherford said...

Signs and Wonders:
Thank you for what you do Andrew

Bob U.S.C.G.

Anonymous said...'ve got to be kidding??
There is no way I'm going thru a crap winter such as last winter, not happening.
While on the 4th of July weekend (so very nice) when leaving the cabin I looked down & seen a wholly worm that thing was dark, dark brown, no orange, but you know what?? I did not pick it up to ensure I was right, know why?
Because I am very adamant about the fact that I am not going thru another one of those cold snowy crap winters. Sooo until I hopped on this site I was Happy, then that horrible memory was brought back about that wholly worm.
Trying times I'm tellen ya!
I'm going to close my eyes & pretend I know nothing!
( know you are priceless & we love ya, so nothing against you at all)but...
I am shutting my eyes to this until I'm made to open them...(that would be the 1st snow storm of the season) & even then I'm only opening one eye.

Christopher Ebie said...

Wow...I was so hoping that the folks in California might have some rain next winter. Now I am concerned. We have quite a few months to go so I suppose we can "expect the unexpected" but I was also hoping for a milder winter here in Michigan. Now I am beginning to brace myself. I do appreciate all your work Andrew.

Anonymous said...

Andrew, from some of your previous posts I felt that the other winter weather predictors were not in line with El Nino, now seeing this info on the current El Nino perhaps the other indicators are more significant than we thought. Very interested to see what your 2014-15 forecast will look like....I see heavier snows moving a bit westward across the southern plains along with the bitter cold.....or a repeat of last year.

Shawn said...

I am loving what I am hearing about the upcoming winter. I hope areas in the west including California can still get rain and mountain snows despite the lack of El Nino!

Last winter we had a few snow storms but nothing to intense, we mainly had the very cold air which was good in itself. I am hoping along with the very cold air we get a lot more snow than last winter.

Keep up the great work Andrew, I love looking at your posts especially the posts having to do with winter!

A week or two ago the sunspot number was down in the mid-upper 30s for a day. Right now it is at 197, so the number goes up and down everyday.

Frank-o said...

Hmmmmmmmmm, OK.....Lets not hit the pantic button yet...
But also, Lets not forget that Joe Bastardi said more then a month ago.. "That the coming El-Nion would not sustain itself"......
But.....This NOAA Press Release says...
"In the newest forecast, issued Thursday, NOAA experts and scientists at Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society said there is a 68% chance of an El NiƱo event starting in the northern hemisphere summer, with a higher chance, about 78%, that one will commence during the fall and early winter"......Ya Gotta loveit!!!!