Friday, October 3, 2014

October 10-15 Potential Wintry Storm, LRC Implications

The potential for a wintry storm in the October 10-15 period is being monitored, as well as its impacts on the new Lezak Recurring Cycle.

Instant Weather Maps
The image above shows the GFS model forecasted precipitation, mean sea level pressure values, and 850 temperature contours for the date of October 10th. In this graphic, we can see a storm system pushing north through the Midwest and Ohio Valley dropping impressive rains over Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and parts of Michigan. However, the 850mb temps appear to be near to just below freezing over central Michigan, where we see a rather sharp cutoff in the precipitation shield.

The 850mb level, located about 5,000 feet off the ground, being below freezing can indicate snow... in certain situations. The temperature profiles for the atmosphere in general in central Michigan, where snow appears the most "likely" to occur ("likely", in this situation meaning not too likely), aren't favorable for much wintry precipitation. Despite this, the backside of this storm could drag down some cold air, which might allow for some flakes to fly in parts of the North/Central US.

As for the Lezak Recurring Cycle, it has been indicated that this is part of the new pattern. To paraphrase what the founder of the LRC concept, Gary Lezak, said, the new 2014-2015 LRC pattern is now becoming visible. Depending on how the rest of the month evolves, this storm system could be one we see repeating in the future as potentially a pretty good winter storm.

Unless future forecasts raise the risk of wintry precipitation, this may be the last update on this system.



Anonymous said...

We'll probably have a warm October for the east coast. It looks like the though will be focused on the central US and Canadian prairies. After the chilly shot this weekend, I don't see anymore chilly shots for a while... at least none that would impact the atlantic coast.

Andrew, do you believe there will be a change to cold in the east by November, similar to last year?

Frank-o said...

I totally agree anonymous...I have lived in NC for 62+ years and after looking at the Weather Channel LRF and Accu-Weathers LRF and The NWS long Range forecasts.....We are in for a long..........Very warm fall season.....N. C. could very well stay warm right on into the month December....NC might be in line for a very warm winter....

Anonymous said...

Frank, why would you pay any attention to those long-range forecasts? TWC promised a variable, sometimes warm winter last year!

Those are a complete joke...e.g. this is what accuweather said for the southeast last year

Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Gulf Coast to Rival Warmth Records

The winter season will begin with well above-normal temperatures for the Southeast, Tennessee Valley and Gulf Coast areas.

December could yield daily record-breaking warmth for the Tennessee Valley, where monthly temperatures departures could average as much as 4-6 degrees above normal.
And here is what happened for the winter

Then read this about the NOAA outlook and what actually happened

Those forecasts aren't worth a dime.

erman said...

What do you think Andrew, no good news for Northeast snow lovers ? Warm air to dominate region like everyone suggest ?

Anonymous said...

Any idea of how Halloween forecast looks right now? Warm/ cold / wet?
Last year we had a windy driving rainstorm in the Great Lakes region, sucked for the kids and us parents walking that night.
What's the LRC predict for this timeframe?
Thanks in advance.

BearCub said...

The National Weather Service does not make long-range weather forecasts. They use probability of being cold or warm, wet or dry. They even use EC, which stands for equal chances. Last year the Eastern US had and equal chance (EC) of having above normal temperatures or below normal temperatures-that is not a weather forecast. Look at the National Weather Forecast for Last Winter (we al know how cold it was):

Anonymous said...

There was snowfall in Minnesota and Wisconsin on 10/3/14.

I would like to see more by the end of the month.

Mark in Mpls