Sunday, December 28, 2014

January 6-10 Potential Winter Storm

Model guidance is latching onto what could be our first shot at a strong winter storm, in the January 6-10 timeframe.

Tropical Tidbits
The above image shows 500mb geopotential height values in colored shadings, and MSLP values in contoured lines, across the West Pacific on New Years Eve. In this image, we see a strong low pressure crossing Japan, with a minimum central pressure value of 991 millibars, before sliding north and east towards the Aleutian Islands. If we apply the Typhoon Rule, which states that weather phenomena occurring in the West Pacific is reciprocated in the United States six to ten days later, we may extrapolate this to mean a strong storm could impact the US in a January 6-10 timeframe.

Other model guidance supports a weaker system moving over Japan, meaning we will need to monitor the region in coming days. If the storm crosses Japan at a weaker intensity, the storm here in the US would likely be weaker as well.

Purely for 'eye candy', here's the latest GFS projection of a storm in the East US on January 6th. This graphic isn't a forecast you should count on to verify.
COD
To summarize:

- A storm system may impact the US between January 6-10.
- Storm strength is still uncertain, and all aspects exhibit very high uncertainty at this juncture.

Andrew

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Is there a possible cold blast into the East following this storm? A couple days ago you were hitting pretty hard on a persistent Southeast ridge. However since then a lot of guidance has been showing 3-5 days of cold air flooding much of the East around or just after the timeframe discussed in this post (in addition to the couple cold days that are already forecast this coming week).