Thursday, December 4, 2014

New, Successful Analog Guidance Predicts Warm December, Cold January

A new system of analog guidance I composed in recent days, showing success in the limited number of trial runs I have conducted, is forecasting a predominantly warm month of December, followed by a cold January.

ESRL
The image above shows analog guidance's temperature forecast for the month of December. As the image shows, millions across the country would average out over a degree (Celsius) above normal, primarily in the Plains and Midwest. Only the Southwest would see a colder than normal start to winter.

Now, how accurate is this analog guidance? I just got this system up on its feet last night, and these are the first results of the forecast. Some development is still needed, but that will come with time. I've noticed the analogs seem to understand the general pattern (i.e. negative Arctic Oscillation, positive PNA, etc), but still do struggle with less-synoptic features. For now, I'm presenting the data here, allowing it to verify and examine how it does later in January.

ESRL
In January, my analogs see the mass of cold air being stored in Canada on the last image bulldozing southward, bringing below-normal temperature anomalies to much of the nation, especially the northern Plains. The South then looks to see slightly above normal temperatures. Oddly enough, this pattern is surprisingly La Nina-like, even though I made sure to factor in El Nino analogs.

ESRL
The 500mb height forecast anomalies for January show sustained ridging over the Arctic, forcing what appears to be the brunt of the Polar Vortex south into western North America. This then bleeds east, allowing for those chilly temperature anomalies in the Central US.

I'll end this post with a look at the analog forecast for the stratospheric portion of the polar vortex, since this image only shows the tropospheric version.

ESRL
If you look closely, you'll see the polar vortex has been nearly obliterated...

To summarize:

- A new set of successful analog years is predicting a warm month in December, followed by a cold month in January.

Andrew

11 comments:

Shawn said...

Don't like the warm December, but the cold January sounds wonderful! I hope we get an active winter in 2015 several snowstorms maybe a blizzard. I'd love to witness thundersnow again. I would record it on my camcorder and put it on my YouTube channel! Andrew if you'd like to see my weather/siren videos and possibly subscribe to my channel my name on YouTube is TheDeadmanRules.

Anonymous said...

I really love the warm December we are having! If it weren't for the nasty virus that I believe thrive in the warm weather, I'd love for it to stay warm....but...because of the nasty bugs I hope it gets really super cold in January for 3 weeks only...that should kill em!
Then back to the 40's/50's we are enjoying! And as for snow...we don't need it..ever! Thank you so much Andrew for keeping us all in the know!
bree

Toot said...

How in the hell is it successfully if u just got it running last night?? Lol

Frank-o said...

Yes....Dec will be a warm month here in North Carolina.....Much above normal temps.....This will continue in the new year as well...

Andrew said...

Toot: In the first sentence, it is explained how success was observed in trial runs conducted with the analogs.

Anonymous said...

Frank-o When do you think the cold returns into the East?

Anonymous said...

how can you inject a new model into your forecasts that projects a 360 degree turn in outlook on Dec 1 dec over a few days ago Dec 1. we have intently followed you over last two years and other than missed prediction for strong el nino this year you have done a pretty creditable job in forecasting and people rely on you. best practice suggests one would have tested your new analog model for several months before publishing your results as your forecast especially when you get such a dramatic change over just a few days

A supporter
Mike

Anonymous said...

Andrew, I sense a little confusion on your part regarding this years winter weather pattern. It seems things are not playing out as you would expect (and historically speaking, what you expect usually plays out). Can you give us some insight into the difficulties you are having this year, and do you still feel your official winter forecast will come to fruition. Thank you, I appreciate you!

BearCub said...

Andrew, can we still expect the cold stormy period in December detailed in the previous post? I am thinking that a really good Winter starts early and ends late.

Ryan Ferraresi said...

According to Blizzardof96, the latter half of December could get really cold!:)

Andrew said...

Mike: I could do private verification, but historically, when I've restricted posting content, it falls under the radar and goes to waste. Here, not only can my analogs be used against verification, but analog forecasting as a whole can be put to the test.

Anonymous at 9:22: More of a chaotic mess of confusion after I had to switch gears in forecasts the other day. Cleared most of it up in today's post, in my opinion.