Wednesday, February 25, 2015

March 1-2 Potential Winter Storm

Model guidance has been indicating a winter storm will track across the middle of the country, bringing accumulating snow to those further south of where much of the wintry weather has occurred this winter.

Tropical Tidbits
The image above shows the GFS forecast for precipitation type and intensity, valid for Sunday night. We see light to moderate, possibly even heavy snow falling across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. A classic signal of winter finally on its way out, the rain/snow line is displaced pretty far north in comparison to where it has been in recent days and weeks, with rain being a concern in southern Illinois into southern Ohio. A bit of mixed precipitation could impact those in the central Plains.

Instant Weather Maps
Snowfall projections have been waving back and forth with the axis of heaviest accumulations, but the latest GFS pegs a swath of 6-10" accumulations across the central Plains into the Midwest and central Great Lakes, with Kansas, northern Missouri, central Illinois and northern Indiana receiving the most snow.

To summarize:

- Model guidance is anticipating a winter storm to affect the country over the next few days.
- Snowfall on the order of 6-10" may be expected.
- While the track of this storm is still not nailed down yet, the central Plains and Midwest ought to see the most intense snow accumulations.



Anonymous said...

Tanner, love this website. I look to it daily throughout winter to get further in depth analysis for upcoming storms to get your thoughts on storm tracks, amts, etc versus the what the main stream weather is saying. Though when you say the rain/snow line is setting up future north for the upcoming storm, rather than where it has been for most of the winter, I have to disagree. Several times throughout December and January, the rain snow line was through central Illinois, along and just north of champaign and I-74. If the rain snow line is an indicator of spring coming, then I have been seeing signs since December with storm tracks. I live a few miles south of champaign and at least 2 or 3 storms have brought rain to my house and accumulating snow a few miles north, Yes the storm track in feb has been farther south for the most part, but this setup, rain/ snow line, seems pretty typical for thiis winter.

Anonymous said...

Awesome !!

Anonymous said...

Yes for the snow, but I don't think this will be the last of the snow !!!

Frank-o said...

Yes....Andrew: For us here in the North Carolina Mountains when we see that freeze line going North at this late stage of winter we know.... That is "CLASSIC SIGNAL"......Ole Man Winter is pulling Northward......

Anonymous said...

Yet another miss by the GFS, north central KS in the worst drought since the 30's, Wilson Lake...a large lake at an all time low. No more than 2" snowfall all winter, and that only happened 2-3 times at most. Cold in east US resembles winters of the mid 1930's as well. What do you think Andrew, same pattern as the 1930's? Super hot and dry summer?