Thursday, November 19, 2015

Thanksgiving Potential Wintry Storm System

There does appear to be at least a chance of a wintry storm system in the Thanksgiving timeframe.

Tropical Tidbits
The GFS model has a messy solution evolving for Thanksgiving Day, as the above image shows. We see two centers of low pressure, one on the Oklahoma/Colorado/Kansas border, and another on the South Dakota/North Dakota/Minnesota border. They are both about the same strength, with the southern one at 1004 millibars and the northern one at 1005 millibars. The graphic here shows widespread (albeit light) snowfall in Montana and North Dakota, with heavier snowfall in eastern North Dakota near the low pressure system.

In the warm sector, we see a line of rain and thunderstorms extending from southern Texas through Oklahoma, Missouri, and into Wisconsin and Minnesota. Going by this image, it's possible we see some stronger storms in the Texas and Oklahoma areas, into Arkansas as the day continues. Heavy rain would still be possible in the Midwest and Great Lakes, making for a soggy Turkey Day for locations such as Chicago, Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Little Rock.

Tropical Tidbits
The GEM model shows a singular storm system placed in southeast Oklahoma in the early morning hours of Friday, immediately after Thanksgiving. This would include heavy rain, and possibly thunderstorms, in Missouri, Arkansas, and along the Gulf Coast. Lighter rain would be anticipated in Iowa and Illinois, while a rain-to-mix solution could evolve for Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa. A snow-mix situation would unfold across the Upper Midwest and North Plains. It's too early to talk accumulations, especially since there is no model agreement on strength, track, and precipitation.

To summarize:

- Model guidance is indicating the chance for a wintry storm system on Thanksgiving Day.
- Low confidence still exists in this situation.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Thank you Andrew! It's to be a rainy day here in central Iowa on Thanksgiving day....I am having the Thanksgiving dinner that day! So that means I need to have my mop handy!
I hope everyone is kind that day & removes their shoes! Figures crossed!I am very thankful for the gathering of family & friends...but remove shoes please!!

"Happy Thanksgiving Everyone"!! :)