Notice of Changes May 31, 2011

As of now, The Weather Centre has deemed it appropriate to delete the following post series:

-Place to Be
-Daily Severe Weather Discussions

However, The Weather Centre has deleted these post series and made the series into pages. These pages are accessible by clicking on the tabs located below the title and description of this blog.

The Daily Severe Weather Discussions can now be found under the Severe Weather Center page.
The Place to Be can be found under the Place to Be page.

This move was made to save posting space and provide more detailed information in more space.

May 31: Tornado Warning- Sanford, MI

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT 

FOR SOUTHERN MIDLAND COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 634 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER 

SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF 

PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SHEPHERD

...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OIL CITY AROUND 645 PM EDT.
  SANFORD AND AVERILL AROUND 655 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS 

SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  SANFORD...            PLEASANT VALLEY...    OIL CITY...
  MIDLAND...

May 31- Storm Aftermath (Explanation of why nothing happened)

The storms that were supposed to carry an extreme damaging wind threat did not form.
The cold front is currently in West Indiana as I post.
Why did nothing happen?

For the Great Lakes areas such as Chicago, it was all cloud cover.
Clouds out ahead of the system brought the storm threat to minimal. Not nearly enough instability was generated to support even strong storms.

For other areas, it was the same thing.
Even right now, a massive wall of clouds is way out ahead of the cold front, also cutting out on instability. However, in those areas, daytime sunshine has already made the atmosphere unstable, so stronger storms are more likely for those areas in the Ohio Valley.

May 31, 2011 Severe Weather Forecast

There is a moderate risk of severe weather in the 'glove' of Michigan.

DISCUSSION
An upper low and shortwave trough will eject into the area forecast for severe weather today. Deep level flow fields appear to be favorable for organized severe storms with damaging winds and hail.
It appears to be that storms will increase in coverage as the cold front ejects into western upper Michigan and Central Wisconsin, with an increase in intensity as the storms move through North IL, IN, and east across lower MI.
The storm modes appear to be bowing segments and supercells early on, which will transition into a more widespread severe wind threat. It was, in the end, the wind threat that initiated the moderate risk area.
As the storms turn linear, along with other factors, the tornado threat is not favorable for tornadoes.

Today's hail outlook

Today's wind outlook

Today's tornado outlook

May 30: Local Area Emergency (Dam Overflow)- East Fork Spring Creek Dam, MT

OCAL AREA EMERGENCY
MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY SERVICES
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
949 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS 

TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY SERVICES.

EAST FORK SPRING CREEK DAM 

HAS WATER FLOWING OVER THE SPILLWAY.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLOW 

OF WATER INTO SPRING CREEK. RESIDENTS
IN LOW-LYING AREAS SHOULD BE 

AWARE OF FURTHER FLOODING POTENTIAL.
THE DAM IS FUNCTIONING THE WAY 

IT WAS DESIGNED.

THE FERGUS COUNTY DEPARTMENT 

OF EMERGENCY SERVICES IS ALSO
RECOMMENDING ONLY ESSENTIAL 

TRAVEL ON ROADS ACROSS FERGUS COUNTY DUE
TO WIDESPREAD FLOOD DAMAGE TO ROADS.