State of Emergency Declared for New Jersey as Half a Million Without Power

A state of emergency is effective for New Jersey as the 'Octogeddon' continues to crush the Northeast.

It has been reported that 1.5 million people are without power so far with this storm.

13z HRRR gives NYC 12-18 inches of snow

The HRRR short range model is giving New York City 12-18 inches of snow- a far cry from the estimated 4.3 inches the NYC NWS Forecast office is putting out.

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Snow Falling in Northeast; Totals Look to Move Above 1 foot

Intellicast Radar

Snow is currently falling over the Northeast as a strong low pressure system progresses along, just outside the coast. Rain is currently more prevalent over the Virginia area, something we were surprised at, as we expected more snow coverage in that area. This system will continue to move along and gain strength. Eventually, a changeover to all snow will occur, and it looks like that changeover will be a crucial factor in totals.
The models continue to spit out accumulations well over a foot for many areas. Here's the suite of models for the northeast:

10z HRRR Model 

6z GFS Model

6z NAM model

All 3 models have different solutions to this snowstorm, but in the end we do have to choose which one will be right. On the top we see the new HRRR model run. The HRRR is a short range model. The HRRR indicates widespread areas of 12-18 inches of snow, with very isolated totals up to 24 inches. This appears to be a fairly good solution, but may be a bit too close to the coast. That does remain to be seen, however.
The GFS has been conservative compared to the NAM for a while now, and we feel that the placement of snowfall is correct; not the amounts. We do feel that the NAM/HRRR have a very similar solution, and since the HRRR is a short range model and has just come in with new data, we believe snowfall totals should be around the NAM/HRRR totals.

18z NAM Brings Spots of 20 Inch Totals to Northeast

The 18z NAM is bringing areas of 20 inch totals to the Northeast, and unless the tedious GFS model takes this solution too, it's unlikely there will be a solution in between the NAM/GFS in terms of snowfall amounts. We will bring the totals from the GFS shortly.

Early Season Snowstorm Looks to Crush Northeast under 18 inches of Snow

This is a special briefing brought to you by The Weather Centre on the upcoming early season snowstorm for the Northeast Region this weekend.

Points included in this briefing are:
•Summary of Storm Accumulation Forecasts
•Safety Tips
•Dates for Further Briefings

•STORM ACCUMULATION FORECASTS•

It is a done deal that there will be a snowstorm this weekend in the Northeast. With the models coming in with little to no change on the situation this afternoon, chances for a significant change in the models are now practically nothing. That said, let's get to the accumulation forecasts. We have localized forecasts and regional forecasts. Let's start with localized.

12z NAM Snowfall Forecast for the Northeast

If you don't realize how much snow the red area is, you're about to- Anyone in the red area is subject to 15 inches AT LEAST should this model verify. That's right- 15 inches. This is the NAM model at its best. We see a huge swath of huge snows. The NAM has been showing this for a while now, but not at this much snow for this big an area. Coastal cities will see a large cutoff- that is, extremely varied snowfall totals over a small area. This image is not gospel, though, and we are hesitant to trust it, to say the least. 18 inches is a LOT of snow, and any model that shows more than a foot is dealing with a very large amount of uncertainty from human forecasters that encounter this data. We are watching it, but we feel it is best to wait than trust this huge snowmaker model.

12z GFS Model Snow Forecast for the Northeast

The GFS is definitely more toned down, with only a small patch of red. However, there are large areas of pink and blues. The darkest blue indicates a MINIMUM of 8 inches, with pink at a MINIMUM of 12 inches. Needless to say, the GFS and NAM are on a similar track when saying that big snowfall may occur. At this point in time, we will be more conservative with snowfall totals and go with the GFS, as we don't have enough confidence in the NAM. That may change with the 18z model info coming out around 5 tonight.

Let's move on to region forecasts.

This is the NAM, if you could tell.

This is indeed the NAM model on a regional scale. Notice the large swath of red on the map for the Northeast. Again, this is a very large amount of snow. The thing we are waiting for is for either the GFS to go up in snowfall or for the NAM to go down. That should happen very soon, but if it doesn't, we will take the middle road and assume a foot is a fairly good possibility. However, that will happen when/if we come to it.

•SAFETY TIPS•

This is a very early system storm, and there are a lot of things that are different than a typical coastal storm in the middle of winter. First, trees may still have leaves in the region. With windy conditions putting stress on the trees as leaves act as a sail to a sailboat, the very heavy snow will weigh on the trees and undoubtedly make them break. As these trees break, they may catch on power lines. DO NOT touch downed power lines. They are likely LIVE. You may be electrocuted. 

Here's a few safety tips.

•Don't touch downed power lines. NO MATTER WHAT.

•Take frequent breaks while shoveling- heart attacks have been recorded due to too much work.

•If your power goes out, unplug electrical appliances- the power surge when power comes back on can damage electrical appliances.

•Keep a watchful eye on your trees, and prepare for falling trees on your property.

DATES FOR FURTHER BRIEFINGS

 Tonight- 7:00 PM CDT

Tonight- 8:00 PM CDT

Tomorrow- Frequent, un-timed updates.