Where is winter???

It's getting pretty frustrating to see the teleconnections being so unbelievably stubborn right now. In all honesty, if this continues, our winter forecast will have to be revised. Here's the latest.

NAO

The NAO is mocking snow lovers with a bouncing ball-like forecast. We see the ensembles pretending to go towards negative territory but then moving positive again, like a bouncing ball. Until the NAO can actually go negative, you won't be seeing huge snows anytime soon.

AO

Here's the gist of the AO: If it goes negative, you can expect temperatures to go down. If it's positive, the cold air won't be coming near the country soon. We see the AO ensembles taunting us with nosediving towards negative, but then shooting up positive again in defiance. This is not a good recipe for winter.

Summary
This is a really horrible batch of teleconnections we have here. Until these two indices above go negative, winter will keep stalling. It can only stall for so long before winter ends.
We don't want to vent about how horrible this is, so we are keeping this post to a minimum, explanation-wise.

'Snoctober' May Repeat in Mid December

Before we start, let's define the LRC. The LRC is a cycle that is believed to form between October 1 and November 10th. In this timeframe, it is believed that a storm/pattern sets up that will eventually repeat itself around 40-60 days later. This same/very similar pattern continues through the winter and fades into summer. No year is exactly the same, and there is a new pattern every single year.

The Halloween Snowstorm that the Northeast saw this year will be repeating with this year's LRC. It has been determined that the cycle is around 45-50 days long this year. Here's the Halloween Snowstorm as projected from the HPC daily maps.

Halloween Snowstorm seen on East Coast on October 30, 2011.

If we were to match the date of October 30 with about 48 days, we would come up with a date of around December 17, 2011 as another storm to hit the Northeast. While watching developments on the Accuweather Forums (of which is a forum with tons of meteorological skill and knowledge), it appears that the GFS is indeed showing a storm for the Northeast around this timeframe. Below is the forecast.

December 18 Forecast, Lining up With LRC

This will change. I can guarantee that this forecast will change before the date comes around. This does mean that NYC may get snow, like the 'Snoctober' storm brought, or maybe just rain, like the current forecast indicates. Either way, this feature will be returning to the Northeast bother 46-50 days after December 16-19, and every 46-50 days after each cycle (each time it occurs). I do believe that this will occur, but the question is if it will keep the same intensity and track.

December 9-11 Potential Snow System (Great Lakes, Midwest Affected) (Updated 12/3)

The ECMWF is bringing back the idea of a December 9-12 snow system, but this time in the 9-11 timeframe. Below is a comparison of the 12z ECMWF December 1st model run and today's 12z ECMWF model run.

December 1st ECMWF Model Run, Valid December 11

December 3rd ECMWF Model Run, Valid December 10

Check out just how similar the model runs are with placement of the storm. There are some differences though, including storm strength and the amount of cold air available. Today's 12z ECMWF indicates much colder air will be available, but the storm will be weaker than what the Dec. 1 ECMWF model run showed. For those who are wondering, the GFS is not showing this prospect. But since the ECMWF has brought this idea back, I believe it warrants close monitoring, as trends like this ought to be closely followed.

Plan of Action for Models Page

In case you haven't heard, we are doing a major renovation on the Weather models page by converting websites into individual links by each model forecast hour.

This means MANY MORE links but MUCH easier access to the models.
Our potential finish date is hopefully by Spring 2012.
During that time you will see some model pages have a sign indicating it is under construction.
Here's the plan of action.

1: Get necessary model links up (precip, temperature, etc.), delete older model links.
2: Convert some links.
3: Add new links.
4: Sort out additional, less necessary links (instability, snowfall ratios, etc.).

Again this will be a very long process and posting may be more limited as we work to accomplish this huge task.

Snow Days Not Out of Question for December 5-7 Snowstorm

Bottom stripe of snow is December 5-7 storm

I believe that some areas within this stripe of heavier snow from the December 5-7 snowstorm could easily cause a 'snow day' or delay of school for some areas when the system passes through. This image projects over a foot of snow to fall in Central Illinois, with isolated higher totals in Missouri. We have yet to have a definitive chance for a snowstorm, but rather be safe than sorry, we have decided to outline a risk for snow days.