NORTHEAST WINTER STORM DISCUSSION

IN THE 00Z MODEL RUN, THE GFS MODEL WAS THE CLOSEST TO SHORE WITH THE STORM AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, THE NAM AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST THAN THE GFS.

THE BIG PLAYER, THE ECMWF MODEL, HUGS THE COAST VERY TIGHTLY, COMING WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BEING THE TWO BIGGEST MODELS, IT'S SAFE TO SAY THAT THE STORM SHOULD OCCUR.

IN THE 06Z RUN, WHICH IS NEWEST, THE NAM GIVES IN AND IS BUDDY-BUDDY WITH THE GFS, BOTH CLOSE TO SHORE. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE ALSO TAKEN THAT SOLUTION, YET THE NCEP ENSEMBLE REMAINS MIXED.

AT THIS TIME, I DO BELIEVE IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT THE NORTHEAST STORM IS LIKELY AT THIS TIME.